Monday, May 22, 2006, 01:00 pm
Sales of Apple\'s iPod, Adobe\'s Creative Suite slowing?While acknowledging that it is too early to make an accurate prediction on Apple's June quarter iPod results, analysts for PiperJaffray have analyzed the first month of NPD data for the quarter and found that iPod unit shipments appear to be reflecting some slight downside.
"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of April leads us to a preliminary iPod number of 8.0 million for the June quarter," analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday. "The 8.0 million unit number is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this datapoint with other information."
Munster said The Street is currently looking for Apple to posts sales of 8.6 million iPods during the quarter, ahead of his own estimate of 8.25m and the 8.0 million units suggested by his first month analysis of NPD data.
"Recent chatter in various articles and web postings about trends with component suppliers have suggested that iPod units were slower than expected in April, so we do not think investors will be surprised by this early datapoint," Munster said. "As a result of 'Grads and Dads' buying we believe May and June iPod sales will likely be better than what was seen in April."
By the time the second month of iPod data is release by NPD, Munster believes his analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure that what his current analysis suggests.
Meanwhile, the analyst said NPD data for the first two month's of Adobe's May quarter indicates a slow down in orders for the company's Creative Suite bundle as consumers begin to anticipate the launch of Creative Suite 3.0 in the spring of 2007.
"Since Adobe provided its second quarter intra-quarter update on May 2nd indicating that it expects results toward the lower end of guidance based on 'spring break,' investors have been trying to get their arms around causes of weakness in the quarter," Munster told clients. "Based on an analysis of NPD data, we believe the beginning of a slow down in the Creative Suite prior to CS3 are likely the cause of the company pointing to the low end of guidance for Q2."
PiperJaffray maintains Outperform ratings on both Apple and Adobe, with respective price targets of $99 and $45.