Goldman: iPhone to drive 'next big growth phase' for AppleFollowing a recent buying intention survey, investment bank Goldman Sach said it is increasingly confident in its estimates that Apple will sell more than 14 million iPhones through the 2008 holiday shopping season.
The survey, conducted in the US, UK, China, and India, found that the number of potential iPhone buyers is equivalent to 75 percent of the installed base of current iPod owners, with just under half of the potential buyers coming from respondents who have never owned an iPod.
In the US, 71 percent of respondents indicated interest in a potential Apple mobile phone, analyst David Bailey told clients, noting that the survey took place before the iPhone was unveiled in January.
Overall, Apple ranked as the No. 4 most desired handset brand in the US — again, the results coming before the formal demonstration of iPhone, which broadly exceeded expectations.
"Some of the concerns about the unwillingness of consumers to switch carriers to get the handset they want seem misplaced, with 30 percent of UK respondents and 15 percent in the US suggesting that they would switch," Bailey wrote.
He said the results offer increased confidence that Apple will meet his previous sales estimates of at least 4 million units in 2007 and 10.5 million in 2008.
In his analysis, Bailey assumed 25 percent video iPod cannibalization in 2007 and 50 percent in 2008, concluding that iPhone alone could add an incremental 4 to 5 percent to Apples revenue growth in those two years.
"We think that iPhone starts the next big growth phase for Apple," he wrote, "making it a core holding, and believe that the stock should be bought on dips prior to the products launch in June."
On Topic: Investor
- Most money managers bungled Apple stock in 2014, missing out on huge gains
- Overwhelming iPhone 6 & 6 Plus demand continues to result in tighter supply for Apple than 2013
- Apple's blockbuster winter quarter boosted by cheap oil, dinged by strong dollar
- Morgan Stanley fined $4M for allowing rogue Apple stock trades
- JMP raises Apple price target to Street-high $150 on 'exceptionally strong' demand for iPhone, iPad