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Thursday, June 10, 2010, 09:00 am
T-Mobile, not Verizon, most likely to see iPhone first, report claims
While its inevitable that Apple will introduce a version of its iPhone handset for U.S. wireless carriers outside of AT&T, it's T-Mobile that stands as the front-runner for the gig rather than Verizon, one investment research firm said Thursday.In a report released to clients Thursday morning, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu cited sources as saying that additional U.S. iPhone carriers are becoming "closer than reality than ever," with some indicating that an announcement could come as early as this fall or early next year.
"While the general consensus is around Verizon (which we believe will happen eventually), we continue to believe that T-Mobile USA is the most likely candidate given its use of similar cellular technology as AT&T," he wrote. "Also, we are picking up that T-Mobile views the iPhone as key in winning back lost customers and as such could be more likely to agree to Apple's terms."
More specifically, Wu noted that T-Mobile's 3G service (UMTS/HSPA) supports 1700 MHz and 2100 MHz frequencies while AT&T supports 850 MHz and 1900 MHz frequencies. With both the new iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS supporting 3G at the 2100 MHz frequency, the technical hurdle to support T-Mobile would be minor compared to supporting CDMA technology used by Verizon and Sprint, he said.
Another reason why the analyst believes Apple is poised to broaden availability of the iPhone in the near term is stem adoption of mobile phones based on the Android operating system developed by rival Google. Currently a relatively niche player in the market with just 9% U.S. share, Android's progress to date is believed to be the result of a lack of competitive options from Apple on networks outside of AT&T.
"Our sources also indicate that one of the key reasons why Apple is more open to adding U.S. carriers in 2011 is to attack Android more directly," Wu wrote. " Looking at industry data, Android's wins have been where iPhone isn't available and that could change dramatically if the iPhone were available on more carriers."
The Kaufman Bros. analyst reiterated his Buy rating on shares of Apple alongside a $320 price target, saying the Cupertino-based company is best positioned "to outperform in this tough macroeconomic environment with its defensible strategic and structural advantages and its vertical integration."
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Previous Comments View All
T-Mobile can utilize the same iPhone hardware.
Apple will never create a CDMA version for Verizon. Verizon needs to quickly build out its 4G network.....it has to be large enough so that any iPhone can get complete national coverage. This won't happen on Verizon until 2012-2014.
Only three days after the keynote and the multiple carrier rumors are starting? If it was going to happen, it would have happened Monday. It would have happened right when the heckler shouted "Verizon."
Give it up. If you have coverage then bless you, get an iPhone and enjoy it. If you don't have coverage, jump ship and go to a carrier who does. Don't be like AI forum posters and say "I rarely use my iPhone to make calls" or "i use Skype on Wi Fi."
Don't wait until your stuck on the side of the road with your family late at night and find out you have no coverage in a place that ATT's coverage map says you do. Nothing will sober you up from the Kool Aid faster. Believe it.
A Shaw Wu prediction? Just forget it!
Only three days after the keynote and the multiple carrier rumors are starting? If it was going to happen, it would have happened Monday. It would have happened right when the heckler shouted "Verizon."
Give it up. If you have coverage then bless you, get an iPhone and enjoy it. If you don't have coverage, jump ship and go to a carrier who does. Don't be like AI forum posters and say "I rarely use my iPhone to make calls" or "i use Skype on Wi Fi."
Don't wait until your stuck on the side of the road with your family late at night and find out you have no coverage in a place that ATT's coverage map says you do. Nothing will sober you up from the Kool Aid faster. Believe it.
People - this is SO dependent upon location. I realize that only San Francisco and NYC can lay claim to being the heart of the universe, but lets be a little realistic once in a while. You can have that same stranded problem if you are on Verizon, Sprint, or T-Mobile from Arizona to Alabama, where straying anywhere off the interstate system leaves you with one bar or less. Where my daughter goes to school in New Haven, there are big holes around town in both AT&T and Verizon coverage.And heaven help you if Verizon does get the iPhone before FULL LTE implementation. We will hear interminable complaints about the choking of the data network, AND since CDMA uses fewer towers with larger coverage areas, there will be fewer calls that can be handled in a given area. Every carrier has pluses and minuses, and they are controlled both by footprint and usage. Think beyond your local geography for a minute.
... it's T-Mobile that stands as the front-runner for the gig rather than Verizon, one investment research firm ....
Actually, its Verizon.... no wait... its Sprint... no wait.... latests update... it IS Verizon.... uh oh... hang on... no, its T-mobile... not really..s its... its... just Speculation and after several years of the weekly flip flop it is still a big fat YAAAWN.
This is a no-brainer to me for Apple. They are thinking on a global scale, not just the US. Apple won't have to make a new phone, and can make it available to double the amount of US customers that it serves now. While it's impact in the US will be marginal, they can roll this out this year, and then add verizon when it transitions into 4G networks.
T-Mobile 150 million subscribers
Verizon 93 million
ATT 87 million
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...work_operators
These analyst ideasespecially Sean Wu ideas, which is a shame because he's so happy about Macare hardly even worth reading. It must be nice to get paid a good wage to come up with strange ideas about companiessometimes interesting but completely unsubstantiated, sometimes painfully obviousbut never to be held to all the many failed and wildly off-base predictions. He's not even useful for investing...
Even if we don't accept everything this point is pretty important. And they are definitely thinking about maximising reach globally... they've hinted enough about Nokia and other aspects to make it clear.
"Looking at industry data, Android's wins have been where iPhone isn't available and that could change dramatically if the iPhone were available on more carriers"
Apple haven't quite said this on earnings calls but they have said that every time they add a new carrier growth is exponential.
T-Mobile would get the iPhone before Verizon? Just because they use the same protocols as AT&T and dozens of other carriers around the world that sell the iPhone? Are you sure you want to go out on a limb with a prediction like that?
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No duh. I've been saying that for years iPhone will come to T-Mobile first, thanks for catching up with me, Shaw Wu.
On the other hand, my AAPL stock is finally starting to grow big