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Tuesday, April 19, 2011, 11:00 am
Insiders believe Thunderbolt from Intel, Apple will 'greatly affect' USB 3.0
Though Intel has said it plans to support USB 3.0 with its next-generation chipsets, some in the PC market believe Apple's adoption of Thunderbolt could have a major impact.Citing anonymous sources in the PC supply chain, DigiTimes reported Tuesday that Thunderbolt and its 10Gbps data connection speed could "greatly affect" adoption of the competing USB 3.0 port in the future. It said that in addition to Apple, which added Thunderbolt to its latest line of MacBook Pros, Sony is also said to be considering adopting the technology into its high-end notebooks.
Last week, Intel publicly said it plans to support USB 3.0 alongside Thunderbolt. But sources reportedly said that Intel is simply hedging its bets by adding USB 3.0 support to its next-generation chips, code-named "Ivy Bridge."
"Sources believe Intel's strategy of adopting both technologies into its next generation products is to minimize the risks of placing all the eggs into one basket," the report said.
People in the PC industry reportedly believe that USB 3.0 is a "transitional product" with legacy support for older USB devices. Thunderbolt, on the other hand, is viewed as the true next-generation successor.
Formerly code-named "Light Peak," Thunderbolt has data transfer speeds that are 20 times faster than the current market standard, USB 2.0. Thunderbolt's 10Gbps speeds are also twice as fast as the USB 3.0 specification.
For comparison, a FireWire 800 port is 800Mbps, while an Express Card slot has bandwidth of 2.5Gbps. Thunderbolt's speeds are accomplished with copper wire, though previous versions of Light Peak were demonstrated with fibre optic strands allowing speeds of up to 100Gbps. Thunderbolt was co-developed by Intel and Apple.
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I think it's very hard to know how this will play out. The PC market tends to prefer sticking with technology that is cheaper and backwards compatible. A technology or product has to be really compelling to overcome that tendency. I don't think it's obvious yet that Thunderbolt is sufficiently compelling in terms of real-world applications (it's certainly compelling from a spec sheet standpoint).
USB3 has obviously mainstream appeal as a way to connect external hard drives. It seems to me that the most likely way for TB to become really mainstream is through docking of iDevices. Then the question becomes -- what's more common, having an external hard drive or having an iDevice? I really don't know the answer to that question.
It does seem a bit odd to introduce this great new connection type along side effectively nothing to plug into it. I expected Apple to at least announce a new Cinema Display with a Thunderbolt cable on it with USB ports etc
Some interesting aspects.
1) Thunderbolt will supposedly be more than twice as fast as USB 3.0. USB, because of its design, apparently, never comes close to its theoretical throughput. This was a big deal in the FW/USB2.0 comparisons, where the USB2.0 peak was higher, but FW400 provided a much faster sustained connection.
2) TB does the capability to provide backwards compatibility with USB 2.0, but the rumor was that the USB groups asked them not to add this in. That would have been the nail in USB3.0's coffin.
However, USB has a pretty strong brand name, and that might be enough to carry it through, and TB might get relegated to Professional uses, like FW was. Lets see if Intel is able to push it enough.
I don't think USB, as a whole, is going to go away. Nobody is going to buy a TB-USB adaptor just to connect a $10 mouse to their computer. And I don't see anyone ever making a TB mouse (just like there are no FW mice that I am aware of). But I think USB 2 will be the standard for awhile now, and TB will all but kill-off the need for USB 3. USB 3 will eventually make it onto computers when including it becomes as cheap at USB 2. But then it will be a "might as well do it because it doesn't cost any more", not a "need it" choice.
This is why Apple is great - leapfrogging entire generations of established technology (USB3, Blu-ray) in favor of more future-looking alternatives (Thunderbolt, wireless streaming). They don't always pick the safest option or the winning horse, but I certainly admire their convictions.
Meanwhile, Dell still ships dial-up ports on certain laptops. Shameful.
I don't think USB, as a whole, is going to go away. Nobody is going to buy a TB-USB adaptor just to connect a $10 mouse to their computer. And I don't see anyone ever making a TB mouse (just like there are no FW mice that I am aware of). But I think USB 2 will be the standard for awhile now, and TB will all but kill-off the need for USB 3. USB 3 will eventually make it onto computers when including it becomes as cheap at USB 2. But then it will be a "might as well do it because it doesn't cost any more", not a "need it" choice.
nearly anything that can be connected via USB 2 can be connected via Bluetooth or wifi (mice, keyboards, printers, etc).
iDevices will either go to WIFI or Thunderbolt, or both. Of course USB2 will still be around until thunderbolt makes it to most PCs, though. It will likely be rolled out on all macs as they update throughout the year.
To avoid another Firewire fiasco, Apple should include Thunderbolt on all new models of all products. Being better is not enough, as Firewire vs USB demonstrated.
I don't think USB, as a whole, is going to go away. Nobody is going to buy a TB-USB adaptor just to connect a $10 mouse to their computer. And I don't see anyone ever making a TB mouse (just like there are no FW mice that I am aware of). But I think USB 2 will be the standard for awhile now, and TB will all but kill-off the need for USB 3. USB 3 will eventually make it onto computers when including it becomes as cheap at USB 2. But then it will be a "might as well do it because it doesn't cost any more", not a "need it" choice.
A bit true, TB technology will be more expensive than USB 3.0 so everyone will keep on using it (USB 3.0) until a cheaper one (and better one) pops out. And yes, good point though on no one will buy an expensive TB-wireless-mouse than more cheaper USB 3.0 mouse. Okay maybe there are some people who will..
I think it's very hard to know how this will play out. The PC market tends to prefer sticking with technology that is cheaper and backwards compatible. A technology or product has to be really compelling to overcome that tendency. I don't think it's obvious yet that Thunderbolt is sufficiently compelling in terms of real-world applications (it's certainly compelling from a spec sheet standpoint).
USB3 has obviously mainstream appeal as a way to connect external hard drives. It seems to me that the most likely way for TB to become really mainstream is through docking of iDevices. Then the question becomes -- what's more common, having an external hard drive or having an iDevice? I really don't know the answer to that question.
USB3 does not have mainstream appeal. The vast majority of hard drives and thumb drives are still USB2, the cables are thick and inflexible, not suited for mice and keyboards.
In terms of real world applications, Thunderbolt is incredibly compelling. Laptop docking stations (with USB 3.0 support) through a single cable, monitor hubs, external video cards, blazing fast access to raid arrays. It's an extension of the PCIe bus outside of the computer with DisplayPort built in (don't forget that DP can handle HDMI signaling too), what's not to like?
USB isn't going anywhere though. There are not going to be a lot of TB ports per computer, we wont see TB printers, mice or keyboards. TB isn't designed to replace those aspects of USB, but then again they don't need the speed of USB 3.0 either. I think many devices might stop at USB 2.0, USB 3.0 has not reached critical mass yet and with native Intel support not coming until TB support also comes, its best hope (external hard drives), will have a better option, provided you don't need to break them out of the daisy chain often. The one thing I think USB 3.0 will be good for is thumb drives, and those external hard drives that are frequently disconnected (look for USB 3.0 and TB both to be on external hard drives, giving the consumer the connectivity option).
USB 3 is the last gasp of USB.
It will be a very long, very useful last gasp! It's backward-compatible, and USB will be with us (alongside Thunderbolt) for years to come. Devices from cameras to keyboards to printers that use USB will not be phased out any time soon.
Eventually, Thunderbolt will probably spell the end of the line for USB. But that's a long way off, and until then, USB may as well keep improving.
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Seems to me that for the extra couple of dollars it will cost Intel to include the USB 3 alongside Thunderbolt makes it a no brainer for Intel- and since they are co-developers of Thunderbolt it would be very odd for them not to push that technology.
But I think we are all aware of cases where a superior technology did not win out due to considerations in the marketplace that were not directly related to the technical superiority of the product.
I believe it will come down to how well peripheral device manufactures are able to not only produce but also market and sell devices using these technologies.
Another major factor could be some new use for connecting your computer to a peripheral device that hasn't even been thought of yet - or was previously just not possible using legacy connection types.
It does seem a bit odd to introduce this great new connection type along side effectively nothing to plug into it. I expected Apple to at least announce a new Cinema Display with a Thunderbolt cable on it with USB ports etc - not that I would have replaced my existing Cinema Display - but on my 2011 MacBook Pro I currently have 7 wires connected to the side of it - Power - Gigabit Wired Network - FireWire800 - Thunderbolt to DVI conversion - USB to Cinema display - USB to IPad - (open USB) - and Audio output. It would be nice someday to have only one or perhaps two wires plugged into the notebook.