Katie Marsal
Analyst Charlie Wolf's new estimates take into account higher-than-expected demand for the iPad 2 since it launched in March. In the third quarter of fiscal 2011, Wolf originally projected Apple would sell 7.5 million iPads; now he sees that number hitting 9 million.
"While competitors have rushed to launch competing tablets, they have made an imperceptible dent in the trajectory of iPad sales," Wolf wrote in a note to investors. "They have been unable to undercut the price of the iPad; and they're fallen woefully short in matching its features, ease-of-use and the number of applications written for the device.
"Indeed, the only risk in our forecast is on the supply side, not the demand side."
Wolf has also increased his third quarter Mac shipment estimate to 4.25 million units, up from the previous prediction of 3.75 million. With another 4.9 million Macs in the fourth quarter, he sees shipments for Apple's fiscal 2011 reaching 17 million.
The updated numbers also include slightly lower estimated iPhone sales. Wolf said he reduced fourth-quarter shipments from 17.5 million to 16 million because Apple is likely to reduce channel inventory of the iPhone 4 before the fifth-generation iPhone goes on sale.
Needham's third-quarter revenue estimate has been increased to $25.4 billion, up from $23.5 billion. In fiscal 2011, he sees Apple earning $103.6 billion, an increase from the previous prediction of $101.1 billion, with earnings per share of $25 for the year.
Wolf's forecast of 2012 revenues was also bumped up to $130 billion, from $125.2 billion, with EPS of $30.
A week ago, Wolf made a prediction that the iPhone will continue to win back share from Google's Android platform in the U.S. smartphone market. He found that Android experienced its first sequential loss of market share in any region in the U.S. during the December quarter.
Wolf also has high hopes for the success of the Mac in the enterprise market. In May, he noted that enterprise Mac sales grew 66 percent in the previous quarter, easily outpacing the PC industry's growth of 4.5 percent in the same market.
Stephen Silver
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19 Comments
Charlie Wolf is not a star-rated analyst, so I would tend to disbelieve his predictions. His accuracy is actually worse than Shaw Wu and Katy Huberty, but slightly above that of Gene Munster, so he's in the middle of a sorry bunch.
It should be pointed out that as a whole, professional analysts pull their predictions out of body orifices.
I'll give you three guesses as to which orifice, but you're only going to need one...
Charlie Wolf is not a star-rated analyst, so I would tend to disbelieve his predictions. His accuracy is actually worse than Shaw Wu and Katy Huberty, but slightly above that of Gene Munster, so he's in the middle of a sorry bunch.
It should be pointed out that as a whole, professional analysts pull their predictions out of body orifices.
I'll give you three guesses as to which orifice, but you're only going to need one...
We have to pay more attention to the trends they give with their projections than the actual numbers themselves. If you do that, you'll find their predictions to be useful. They usually do get the trend correct, and most of the analysts are predictable themselves as to where they will be in the numbers. So we can get a good idea of what to expect from their analysis as long as we follow them for at least a year, or more.
I like Andy Zaky myself. He's usually been very close, but of course, he's not on the dot. No one can be. Too bad that his site, Bullish Crossing, is now behind a $40 a month pay wall.
By the way, the article has the $103.5 billion wrong, as it describes it at 2011 "earnings", which of course, is wrong, as it's sales.
I'll give you three guesses as to which orifice, but you're only going to need one...
Nose?
30 millions seem more accurate than the 40 millions that other analysts predicted.
I like how AAPL is undervalue, when the earnings comes in, the P/E is going to get so low that the stock will be "force" to rise up. And I am not even counting the $$ Apple has. I wish Apple could start paying dividends, would be a nice flow of cash for me.
We have to pay more attention to the trends they give with their projections than the actual numbers themselves. If you do that, you'll find their predictions to be useful. They usually do get the trend correct, and most of the analysts are predictable themselves as to where they will be in the numbers. So we can get a good idea of what to expect from their analysis as long as we follow them for at least a year, or more.
I like Andy Zaky myself. He's usually been very close, but of course, he's not on the dot. No one can be. Too bad that his site, Bullish Crossing, is now behind a $40 a month pay wall.
By the way, the article has the $103.5 billion wrong, as it describes it at 2011 "earnings", which of course, is wrong, as it's sales.
I don't put any faith in the professional analysts anymore. The bloggers have beaten the pros ten straight quarters in predicting the two most important figures: revenues and EPS.
Andy Zaky is consistently the best of the bloggers. Maybe now that his site is behind a "semi-pro" paywall, his accuracy will start to drop.
In general, it's best to remember that 95-98% of all Apple rumors end up being wrong. We just need to accept that the pros are more wrong than the amateurs.