Updated AirPods with wireless charging case expected in early 2019, redesign coming in late 2020

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has updated his predictions for Apple wireless earbud line, with a relatively minor upgrade expected in the next six months, and a more pronounced revision with design changes launching before the end of 2020.

In a note seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo is expecting AirPods with "wireless charging support" and a Bluetooth spec upgrade likely to Bluetooth 5.0 and possibly a revised W-series chip to ship in the first calendar quarter of 2019. This may be nothing more than the already-announced Wireless AirPods Charging case, though. Kuo said nothing in the note about the AirPower mat, still yet to be released after being shown off by Apple brass over a year ago.

More time is spent on the 2020 upgrade in the note, however. That revision will have an unspecified "all-new design," with Apple's intent for the release said to push replacement of the first generation of the product.

Also expected by Kuo is a nebulous "innovative user experience" from them, and a "high integration with iOS and Mac products."

Kuo appears to have unrealistic growth estimates for AirPods, though. While the estimates for about 16 million and 28 million AirPods sold in 2017 and 2018 seem reasonable, predictions of 55 million, 80 million, and 110 million units units sold in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively seem overly optimistic at first glance, despite Kuo expecting a larger push towards AirPods than iPhone upgrades.

Kuo was one of the first to get details about the AirPods correct, but he has missed the ball a few times on AirPods, however. Notably, at the tail-end of 2017, Kuo was expecting an improved model to debut in the second half of 2018, which has not materialized.

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34 Comments

ireland

said about 5 years ago

Lest with forget Apple's inevitable price hike for them. $2,000 iPhone... you can do it, Tim. Sigh.

bradchatellier

said about 5 years ago

Anyone who thinks that adoption rate is unrealistic probably doesn't own a pair or know people who do. My girlfriend just bought five pairs of these as Xmas gifts for people who work in her office, as they are *transformative* for people who work on the phone like they all do. A doctor friend I had dinner with last night said that a number of admins in her ward were just issued them. They are phenomenal. I've been holding off pending release of the first major revision and I'm feeling extremely impatient about it.

Mike Wuerthele

said about 5 years ago

bradchatellier said:

Anyone who thinks that adoption rate is unrealistic probably doesn't own a pair or know people who do. My girlfriend just bought five pairs of these as Xmas gifts for people who work in her office, as they are *transformative* for people who work on the phone like they all do. A doctor friend I had dinner with last night said that a number of admins in her ward were just issued them. They are phenomenal. I've been holding off pending release of the first major revision and I'm feeling extremely impatient about it.

We have several pairs, yes. While we agree that they are phenomenal, they don't feel like 110 million units sold in a single year phenomenal because of market forces. Those numbers from Kuo aren't total in the field, they are sales figures per year.

110 million in the field in total by 2021? I'll go with that. 110 million sold in 2021 alone seems improbable. That's the think about analysts predicting sales numbers for products that don't get broken out individually -- we'll never know if they were right, and they can make the predictions and claim that they got it right without fear.

AF_Hitt

said about 5 years ago

The lack of noise isolation is the one thing holding me back on these. Not only does the sound quality take a hit, but these are near useless while I am mowing the grass or flying, for example, and I have to turn them up way too loud at the gym. It's this reason that I am sticking with my trusty Powerbeats 3's.

mac_128

said about 5 years ago

Mike Wuerthele said:

bradchatellier said:

Anyone who thinks that adoption rate is unrealistic probably doesn't own a pair or know people who do. My girlfriend just bought five pairs of these as Xmas gifts for people who work in her office, as they are *transformative* for people who work on the phone like they all do. A doctor friend I had dinner with last night said that a number of admins in her ward were just issued them. They are phenomenal. I've been holding off pending release of the first major revision and I'm feeling extremely impatient about it.

We have several pairs, yes. While we agree that they are phenomenal, 110 million units sold in a single year isn't. Those numbers from Kuo aren't total in the field, they are sales figures per year.

110 million in the field in total by 2021? I'll go with that. 110 million sold in 2021 alone seems improbable. That's the think about analysts predicting sales numbers for products that don't get broken out individually -- we'll never know if they were right, and they can make the predictions and claim that they got it right without fear.

Oh I don’t know. How many iPhones are there?

Headphones have to be one of the top accessories purchased for an iPhone, maybe even over cases. It’s a must-have product for many, with wireless headphones a quickly growing segment.

Albeit anecdotal, I’ve seen far more AirPods in the field than Apple Watches. And, I’ve seen them increase much more quickly than the watch. The watch needs the phone, but the phone needs the AirPods, and at a much lower price point. Given the size of the market both products have to potentially permeate, and given the perceived uptake by the AirPods relative to the watch in the first years of their launch, it would seem like the AirPods have a much greater chance to have a much larger uptake into the massive customer base that is the iPhone. 110 million AirPods is only 10% of the current installed iPhone base? That definitely seems doable in a year as wireless continues its growth, and the AirPods continue their development. By contrast, the watch is thought to be barely even something like 3% after as many years?