Josh Ong"The reports of the demise of these devices are grossly exaggerated," Dunn said, in a play on Mark Twain's famous quote.
"While they were fueled in part by a comment in The Wall Street Journal that was attributed to me, they are not an accurate depiction of what we're currently seeing. In fact, we see some shifts in consumption patterns, with tablet sales being an incremental opportunity. And as we said during our recent earnings call, we believe that computers will remain a very popular gift this holiday because of the very distinct and desirable benefits they offer consumers. That's why we intend to carry a broad selection of computing products and accessories, to address the demand we anticipate this season."
Best Buy had posted strong quarterly earnings this week and remained optimistic as it announced that the iPad would be coming to all of its retail stores. Dunn predicted that tablet devices would be "big for [Best Buy] during the holidays."
Dunn's original comment has been quickly disputed by analysts.
Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley used NPD sales figures to place potential cannibalization at a much lower 25 percent.
Stephen Baker, a retail analyst with NPD, remained even more skeptical. An unreleased survey by NPD pegs the iPad's cannibalization of PC sales "in the mid-teens," according to a Computerworld report by Gregg Keizer.
“Clearly, the iPad is a great product, but it’s way too early to say that it’s putting a significant hurt on the PC market,†said Baker. “In the future, in 2011, assuming that other tablets appear and the trend [in tablets] continues, cannibalization is likely.â€
According to Baker, the principal reason for the decline in notebook sales, which are down 4 percent year-over-year, is that last year's numbers were extraordinary and are difficult to match. “At some point, the gravy train [of PC sales] has to wind down,†Baker said. The end of the Windows 7 "bubble" and less aggressive back to school sales were also to blame, Baker noted.
Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil believes that cannibalization is definitely occurring, but consumers are buying the iPad "to replace a second or third PC." "Almost no one is giving up their main PC for an iPad," said Gottheil.
TBR's iPad & Web Tablet Buyer Study surveyed 500 U.S.-based iPad owners and future buyers. The survey found that a third of those surveyed replaced or will replace their PC with the iPad and almost half of buyers use their iPad as their primary computing device.
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94 Comments
Huh. Sounds like Steve Ballmer made a phone call
Actually, it sounds like the usual "analyst" hand waving. They know two things for sure: Apple is selling a ton of iPads, and netbook/notebook/PC sales have declined somewhat (or their rate of growth has slowed, it doesn't really matter).
But they're obliged to know something, so they make a bunch of dubious connections between phenomena, complete with spurious percentages to make it sound like it was based on something other than wild speculation.
While I admit to spending more time on my iPad than my Mac, I would not consider the iPad my main computer. The iPad is more of an extension. I'm surprised anyone would consider it their main machine.
Tablets are the future of non-work computing. Most of the things I do with my computers are related to my personal entertainment. I do create one spread sheet for personal finance and a few times per week I compose documents using Open Office. The rest of the time I'm using my computers to surf the web and compose e-mail messages.
When I'm doing research for work all I need is a web browser. Still, there will be plenty of spread sheet programs and document programs for all of the tablet devices that come out. As it is I could use an iPad to do all of the work I do now.
In a few weeks I'll be back to designing web sites so the iPad or other tablets won't be able to do that type of job -yet.
Am I a typical personal computer user? I don't know. The people I know, and none of my neighbors ever talk about using their computers for more than personal entertainment or e-mail. I don't know any geeks. I'm the only one in my social circle that does work on the web or on web sites.
So many people say the iPad can't replace a laptop. I disagree just because the iPad does do all of the basic things that people do on their PCs. There's nothing wrong with iPad owners having a spare keyboard around just for when they need to type more than short messages. For all of the rest of the time they can just use the touch screen.
With a ten hour or more battery life and light weight, the iPad seems to be a really good small screen computer. Such tablets will continue to erode overall laptop sales. When the iPad or other tablets have removable storage, cameras, and USB3 or Lightpeak connections they will decimate laptop sales in their price range. If inexpensive netbooks continue to be made they won't go away just because they're much less expensive. There will always be a market for things based on price alone.
While I admit to spending more time on my iPad than my Mac, I would not consider the iPad my main computer. The iPad is more of an extension. I'm surprised anyone would consider it their main machine.
When I want to enjoy tea on the patio, surf or read while lying in bed, or take notes in class, I opt for my iPad now. My MacBook Air, once my machine of choice when mobile, has taken a backseat to the iPad. In fact, I rarely fire up the Air anymore. Same is true for my iMac.
The iPad is reserved for everything fun:
- Games
- Surfing
- Music
- Movies
- iBooks
- USA Today
- Email