Neil HughesAnalyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Monday that he believes the launch of a Verizon iPhone will increase total 2011 U.S. handset sales for Apple by 2.5 million, a number he cautioned "may be conservative." In all, Munster sees AT&T selling 11 million iPhones, and 9 million from Verizon.
But if the iPhone didn't debut on Verizon in 2011, Munster said AT&T alone would likely sell 17.5 million of Apple's handset in the 2011 calendar year.
Munster sees Verizon activating 25 million total smartphones in calendar year 2011. If Apple does indeed account for 9 million, the handset maker would sell 36 percent of the smartphones on Verizon's network.
Munster's model places Apple with a much lower share of smartphone sales that the iPhone currently enjoys at AT&T. In the September 2010 quarter, Munster estimates that the record 5.2 million iPhones activated by AT&T accounted for about 80 percent of all smartphones sold by the carrier.
In a best-case scenario, Munster said AT&T could break even with 2010 and sell 15 million iPhones, and Verizon could match that sum. If that were to happen, it would add 10 million iPhone sales to Munster's 2011 projections, amounting to $5.9 billion in revenue and $1.27 earnings per share.
Kaufman Bros.
In addition, analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. issued a note to investors on Monday in which he said Verizon arguably needs the iPhone more than Apple needs Verizon.
"The reason that VZ arguably needs the iPhone now more than ever is as it has lost share to AT&T over the last two quarters as Android momentum slows here in the U.S. (as per carrier subscriber data)," he said. "We also believe VZ is willing to pay to keep the iPhone exclusive on its network and AT&T. Because of this, we believe the iPhone isn't likely to appear on T-Mobile USA and/or Sprint until later."
Wu sees the Verizon iPhone adding an incremental 2 million to 3 million units per quarter, or 8 million to 12 million on an annual basis. If this prediction holds accurate, it could add between $1.00 and $2.00 earnings per share for Apple, an increase of between 5 and 10 percent in the 2011 calendar year EPS forecast from Kaufman Bros.
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Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Monday that he believes the launch of a Verizon iPhone will increase total 2011 U.S. handset sales for Apple by 2.5 million, a number he cautioned "may be conservative." In all, Munster sees AT&T selling 11 million iPhones, and 9 million from Verizon.
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Has anyone ever done a tale of the tape on this nut-job Gene Munster? Is he ever close with all these attention grabbing claims? I really wish AI would stop using his remarks every week.
I think they are chasing pink unicorns over rainbow bridges.
The first thing I intend to do, as soon as I determine that Verizon has stock on hand (or I can order from Apple) - I will sell my current iPhone 4, and take the proceeds from that sale and give it to AT&T to shove up the oriface of their choice, so I may terminate my contract.
Then, I'll walk my happy self down to Verizon and buy another iPhone 4 from them.
I travel a lot - I cannot get AT&T data coverage at Salt Lake International Airport, Minneapolis International Airport and only sporatically at Baltimare, Ronald Reagan and JFK. Freakin' International Airports!!! Does AT&T actually believe that International travelers do not want to use their AT&T smartphones at the airport?!
My iPHone4 is practically useless at work, poor coverage. When I go skiing, the only phones that work at the resorts are using Verizon or Cricket. Now ask yourself, if you ski and get hurt - and your cell phone has no coverage - what do you do aside for scream for help?
I think AT&T is going to lose A LOT more than what they are letting on. Arrogance and incompetence are going to have large vote at the end of this month. And a lot of customers are going to vote with their feet - I will be but one of millions.
I think AT&T might become a little more competitive if this started to become likely. We have had zero choice till this occurs so I have to think we were not exactly getting AT&Ts best possible pricing. Competition will be interesting
I don't think it will hurt AT&T much. Verizon has a bunch of Droid users that are not happy with how updates are being pushed and that's where iPhone is going to make a big impact.
The first thing I intend to do, as soon as I determine that Verizon has stock on hand (or I can order from Apple) - I will sell my current iPhone 4, and take the proceeds from that sale and give it to AT&T to shove up the oriface of their choice, so I may terminate my contract.