Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple Vision Pro shipments will be limited by a few key suppliers to half what's been predicted, and an update won't arrive until 2027.
Vision Pro at Apple Park
In a Medium post on Tuesday, Ming-Chi Kuo is swinging wide with prognostications about the Apple Vision Pro headset.
Based on some component suppliers' maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000-600,000 units," Kuo claims. Apparently, the market expectation for shipments in 2024 is one million, according to Kuo.
He goes on to guess that Apple may have canceled a low-cost Apple Vision headset in 2025. He cites price for the Apple Vision Pro being a problem, leading to shipment growth of the first version of Apple's headset "not materializing."
Furthermore, he doesn't foresee mass production of a Vision Pro 2 headset until the first half of 2027. This suggests to him that there may be no hardware updates for the headset in over three years.
His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience."
"The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone," Kuo concludes.
The $3499 Apple Vision Pro was announced at the 2023 WWDC. The software for it is still in beta, and CEO Tim Cook says that it is "on track" for early 2024 shipments.