Ming-Chi Kuo

Ming-Chi Kuo
 
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Ming-Chi Kuo is a renowned Apple analyst, with over 10 years of experience reporting on Apple with data from the supply chain. Much of what we learn about upcoming products, delays, and potential price points are derived from Kuo's reports.

● Analyst at TF International
● KGI from 2013-2018
● Started career at Digitimes in 2010
● Well respected analyst with a good track record
● Reported many of the iPhone X details first
● Connections throughout the supply chain


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Ming-Chi Kuo has been a reliable source of solid data on Apple products over the years. Despite Tim Cook insisting that supply-chain-sourced data is a terrible way to make predictions, Kuo's track record is very high.

Kuo's strong points as a leaker are device-specific details and specs. These can sometimes include finer points like color, size, chipsets, and ports. Device names and release dates are often decided too late in production to be predicted accurately. His accuracy is historically strong, with some reports coming to fruition years after his predictions.

Financial Guidance

Ming-Chi Kuo not only uses obtained data to predict future Apple products but provides guidance for how well a product might sell. He arrives at these numbers based on volumes of component orders, then derives what they expect to sell based on previous supply chain inventory reports.

These reports can be accurate, but as Apple's supply chain is very diverse, knowing one product component order doesn't always provide the fullest picture.

Ming-Chi Kuo's Product Predictions

The following are current or recent predictions made by Ming-Chi Kuo about future Apple products.

Next iPhone

'iPhone 14' render from Front Page Tech
'iPhone 14' render from Front Page Tech

Apple didn't remove the Lightning port in the iPhone 13 but may do so in the "iPhone 14" or later. USB-C will never be considered for the iPhone since Apple could lose benefits the MFi program. The company is expected to remove the port altogether in a future model.

Kuo also predicts that the "iPhone 14" will have a 48MP camera sensor. This would be a big leap from Apple's 12MP sensor, but pixel binning may be used to retain 12MP photos, but with better low light performance.

"iPhone 15" to feature under-display Touch ID in 2023. It is also expected to use a periscoping, or folding, lense for improved optical zoom.

"iPhone Fold" could launch in 2024 with 8-inch QHD display. Kuo expects foldable iPhones to drive the next super cycle.

Apple Watch

The 'Apple Watch Series 8' could have a temperature sensor
The 'Apple Watch Series 8' could have a temperature sensor

Kuo expects Apple to release three new Apple Watch models in 2022. The standard "Apple Watch Series 8" will be announced alongside a second-generation Apple Watch SE and the long-rumored rugged Apple Watch.

The "Apple Watch Series 8" is expected to have a temperature sensor for tracking the wearer's body temperature. The December 2021 report doubles down on this feature.

The rugged or "extreme sport" Apple Watch would be made of more durable materials and be useful for environments that would otherwise damage a standard watch.

AirPods

A December 2021 report suggests new AirPods Pro will arrive in late 2022. Little has been said of the new product beyond having a significantly better chipset.

"Apple Glass" and VR

Apple is expected to release a VR headset
Apple is expected to release a VR headset

Before the Jon Prosser leak surrounding "Apple Glass" and its release, Kuo was reporting on the technology. There are two distinct devices. One is an AR or mixed-reality headset that supports both VR and AR. The other is a set of glasses, or "Apple Glass."

The details surrounding the device match with more recent rumors. Ming-Chi Kuo noted that the device will rely heavily on the iPhone, just like the Apple Watch did initially. These details have since been corroborated by other leaks, with only the release date still in question.

A report in May 2021 revealed that the Apple AR glasses wouldn't arrive until 2022, which was contested by Prosser, who expected them by the end of 2021. Kuo believes an AR device will launch in 2021 but did not specify if it was "Apple Glass" or a rumored headset.

Kuo later stated the VR headset would arrive in 2022 at a $1,000 price point. The "Apple Glass" would then later release sometime in 2025 and a contact lens device could come as soon as 2030.

The VR headset is expected to have 15 cameras for environment and object tracking. It will also feature a passthrough mode that lets wearers see the environment around them. Kuo stated in a December 2021 report that the headset will weigh less than a pound.

Ming-Chi Kuo's History

Ming-Chi Kuo has been a well-known Apple analyst for the past decade. His career first came into the spotlight while working at Digitimes, stating ship windows of unreleased iPhone 4 models. He went to work for Concord Securities in 2011, then KGI Securities in 2013.

There he spent the better part of a decade making a name for himself in the Apple rumors sector. When Mark Gurman didn't have insider information, Kuo usually did. Between the two of them, much of Apple's announcements were known well before being made public.

Kuo left KGI in 2018 to join with Chinese firm TF International. He still works there today and continues to provide highly accurate reports and analyses of Apple and its plans.

Timeline of Reports

The following is a timeline of every relevant report from Ming-Chi Kuo predicting a new product or feature. Most predictions pertain to whatever the next iPhone will be, but have expanded to encompass nearly every Apple product during his career.

Product names like “iPhone X” or “Pro Display XDR” were not known until very close to the announcement, so for simplicity’s sake, the correct product name will be referred to in quotes.

2021

December

  • "iPhone 14" to have 48MP camera sensor. "iPhone 15" to use periscoping camera system.
  • More powerful "AirPods Pro 2" coming in late 2022
  • Three new Apple Watch models including new Apple Watch SE and extreme sports models in 2022
  • Apple AR headset to be under a pound, second model even lighter

September

  • "iPhone 15" to have under-display Touch ID in 2023
  • "iPhone SE 3" with 5G expected in 2022
  • "iPhone Fold" coming in 2024

August

July

June

May

April

March

  • "iPhone 13 Pro Max" to have f1.5 aperture 7P wide angle lens
  • Apple VR in 2022 at $1000, "Apple Glass" in 2025, contact lens in 2030
  • "iPhone 13" not moving to USB-C or gaining Touch ID in power button

February

  • Apple to work with Hyundai on Apple Car using E-GMP platform
  • Two new MacBook Pro models will have SD card slots and HDMI port

January

2020

December

November

September

  • 120Hz not coming to "iPhone 12" and Touch ID in top button in more devices in 2021
  • iPad Pro to be the first device with Mini LED display 

August

July

June

May

April

March

February

January

  • 2021 iPhone will have a Touch ID power button and LCD.
  • ”iPhone SE,” "AirTags," small AirPower-like mat, 2020 iPad Pro, “AirPods Studio,” 2020 MacBook Air, and 13-inch MacBook Pro should ship in the first half of 2020.
  • All four “iPhone 12” are on schedule to launch in fall 2020, and will include sub-6GHz and mmWave models.

2019

December

November

October

September

August

July

April

March

February

2018

December

November

October

September

August

July

June

April

March

February

January

2017

December

November

October

August

July

May

March

February

January

2016

November

October

September

August

  • ”10.5-inch iPad Pro” expected in 2017, AMOLED iPad in 2018.
  • “Apple Watch Series 2” with a faster chip, GPS, barometer, larger battery, and same thickness to launch in 2016.

May

April

March

February

January

2015

December

November

September

August

July

  • Apple Watch refresh expected with “sport models” in yellow and rose gold, a new iMac and iPad mini expected in 2015.

June

May

April

March

February

January

2014

November

October

September

April

Ming-Chi Kuo continues to provide reports from his current place of work, TF International.

 
 

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