Neil Hughes
With lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 6s, a soft iPhone SE launch, and dual-camera designs from competitors expected to beat the 'iPhone 7 Plus' to market, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes iPhone shipments could fall below 200 million units this year.
The KGI Securities analyst, who has a strong track record in predicting Apple's future product plans, made his predictions in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider. In it, he forecast shipments of between 85 million and 95 million iPhone units in the first half of 2016, followed by 105 million to 115 million in the back half of the year.
In all, that means he believes iPhone units will fall between 190 million and 210 million for the full year, and he believes Apple is "likely" to see sales fall on the short end of that prediction, dipping under 200 million.
To put the forecast in perspective, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2015. And most on Wall Street expect Apple to ship between 210 million and 230 million iPhones this year.
Kuo's conservative predictions are led by a trio of factors, most notably that he believes replacement demand for larger displays is slowing down. In addition, the newly launched iPhone SE does not present a new form factor, so he believes it won't appeal to a large number of consumers.
But perhaps the most interesting forecast is related to Apple's upcoming "iPhone 7:" Kuo continues to believe that Apple's anticipated dual-camera iSight array will be exclusive to the larger 5.5-inch "Plus" model. If true, that would mean Apple's more popular 4.7-inch model won't gain the same advanced camera system.
In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. If that happens, he believes first impressions of Apple's system could "underwhelm" prospective buyers.
Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans. Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to$500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016.
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47 Comments
"In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. "
Yeah, because history shows us that all companies need to do is ship products and features before Apple in order to "win", and that Apple customers buy Apple products because of a bullet list of features, not the entire design, experience, package, brand, and ecosystem.
There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit.
I think we're more likely to see a drop in the ASP rather than a significant volume drop. The full effect of the iPhone SE will become obvious by end of year. It's pretty clear that Apple are furthering their strategy, they already command the majority of profits in the flagship level of smartphone sales and are now using their supply chain volume advantage to produce cheaper devices which squeeze down near-competitors, effectively making cheaper me-too devices less profitable. (More specifically laying waste to a new price range with a handset that features superior technology for this price point.)
Why does anyone listen to this idiot? He continually spouts crap that everyone listens to, even if it's proven completely wrong days later.
He should be referred to as 'analyst' not insider.
Whether Ming Chi Kuo is a real person or not I guess does not matter. His Name is used as a front whenever the powers that be want to change the conversation. That is, "Somebody" from the Far East who supposedly has inside information. His prediction powers when it comes to Apple results are at best 50-50. I went back and looked at his predictions, most notable the current quarter that just closed. He predicted 43 million phones this quarter due to his "inside" knowledge of the supply chain. If you believe Ming Chi Kuo, then I suggest you sell Apple today.