Katie MarsalAfter analyzing October sales data from market research firm NPD, investment bank Piper Jaffray said Wednesday it expects Apple will sell a record 25 million iPods during the three-month period ending December.
"The 24 million to 25 million unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data," he added, "when the second month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this data point with other information."
Prior to Wednesday's NPD results, the analyst had been modeling the Cupertino-based company to sell approximately 23.5 million of the digital media players during the December quarter, slightly above Wall Street consensus estimates of 23 million. Therefore, he said, the October data is promising.
Munster's analysis of NPD iPod unit data starts by looking at the percentage contribution in NPD data from each month of the quarter in past December quarters. He noted that over the past three December quarters, iPod unit shipments were broken down monthly, on average, as follows: 12 percent (October), 24 percent (November) and 64 percent (December).
However, in quantifying this years percentage breakdown, the analyst conservatively factored in a larger-than-average October monthly contribution of 15 percent given the fact that the new iPods announced in September are radically different from the previous models.
"Apple has announced new iPods in September for the last 3 years, but this year's models are significantly more innovative than the past upgrades," he explained. "As such, we believe the new iPods are driving sales in Oct. to a greater degree than they have in the past."
In using the first month of NPD data and the typical percentage of iPods shipped in the first month, Munster then extrapolates those figures to reach his estimate for what NPD data will look like for the full December quarter.
Apple's current single quarter iPod sales record was achieved last year, when it sold just over 21 million iPods during the three-month period ending December, 2006.
AppleInsider Staff
Andrew Orr
Amber Neely
William Gallagher
Christine McKee
15 Comments
That's pretty impressive.
iPod? What's that? I'm buying a Zune! They are the future! (Complete sarcasm.)
After analyzing October sales data from market research firm NPD, investment bank Piper Jaffray said Wednesday it expects Apple will sell a record 25 million iPods during the three-month period ending December.
I think 25 million is too low. December 2006 there was only a single (silver) shuffle and no touch. The iPod line is much broader this year, and while there is no doubt self-canibalization going on, remember that Apple has only a seventy percent market share in only the USofA. Plenty of room for growth. Also, note that there is only one iPod model that is an MP3 player (the shuffle). All the others are media (video) players that also play MP3s for historical reasons.
HAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............(as I walk to the bank)
If this turns out to be true, I may have to begin slapping these whiners the moment I hear them begin.
"What sucks about Apple is---"
>>SMACK<<
Up the fuck Shut you must, young skyhumper.LOL.
The problem is, Apple can not sustain their iPod sales growth rate forever. So far, Apple was able to sell during December quarter about the same number of iPods as in the previous 3 calendar quarters combined. Now the sales during the firs quarters is so high It will be hard to beat them. 25 million is a huge number. It will be a remarkable success if Apple makes that much. There is a danger of building over-expectations and if Apple makes 19 million will look like a failure.
On the other hand, Piper Jaffray was pretty accurate so far.