Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

Berenberg Bank on Monday let go of Adnaan Ahmad, an analyst known for making some of the bleakest forecasts for Apple stock, with a price target well below $100.

Ahmad acknowledged that his views have been "controversial in the global tech space," and that he has taken "a fair amount of abuse" for them, according to a personal memo about the departure, obtained by Fortune.

The exact reasons for the termination haven't been made public. Neither Ahmad nor a fellow analyst fired from Berenberg, Daud Khan, have another employer immediately lined up.

With Berenberg, Ahmad's estimates for Apple were often so conservative as to be below every other major analyst. In February, for instance, he suggested that Apple's share price was set to plummet over 50 percent to $60, even as other bearish analysts kept targets over $100. Apple shares are currently trading at about $107.

The argument was that the company was too dependent on the iPhone for its profits, and poised to take a hit from a combination of slowed replacement cycles and limits on high-end smartphone marketshare.

In his last Apple stock forecast, from March, Ahmad raised his target to $85, but claimed that the company was "over-earning" and "over-loved," and that its stock would soon be "over-and-out."

46 Comments

nolamacguy 4750 comments · 10 Years

About 8 years ago

hes already got defenders on the Fortune source article's comments.

tjwolf 423 comments · 12 Years

The guy should have been fired a long time ago. It's one thing to predict doom, but to continue to do so for several years - when reality doesn't bear you out - is simply irresponsible. Think of how much the investors at Berenberg who listened to this guy have lost in terms of opportunity! If they listened to him when he first warned of Apple's impending doom, they would have missed an almost doubling of the stock as well as dividends.

vvswarup 337 comments · 14 Years

tjwolf said:

The guy should have been fired a long time ago. It's one thing to predict doom, but to continue to do so for several years - when reality doesn't bear you out - is simply irresponsible. Think of how much the investors at Berenberg who listened to this guy have lost in terms of opportunity! If they listened to him when he first warned of Apple's impending doom, they would have missed an almost doubling of the stock as well as dividends.

Berenberg is not responsible for investors who lose money because they made their decisions on the basis of the a report from a Berenberg analyst. The only way Berenberg can be held remotely responsible is if there was evidence of bias or intent to deceive investors. There was none of that. The analyst simply arrived at a conclusion on the basis of the data he had, which I will assume was clearly outlined in the report until I see evidence to the contrary. Investors shouldn't blindly follow an analyst report.

ronmg 163 comments · 11 Years

I agree Berenberg is not responsible for investors who lose money, but I suspect they have been losing investors who got pissed based on the idiocy of their so-called 'analyst' and seeing what they missed out on based on stupid predictions. Once a bunch of high-valued investors (i.e. loaded investors) left for other more reputable and frankly less anti-Apple companies, Berenberg had no choice.

rogifan_old 725 comments · 9 Years

Can they fire a lot more?