Kasper JadeWeighing in on recent rumors, American Technology Research this week laid down two possible scenarios for a 2 GB flash-based iPod, which it too believes is in the works at Apple Computer.
According to Wu, a shuffle version of the 2 GB player would boast a small display screen, but would not include a click-wheel or sorting functions. He says the design would be similar to today's iPod shuffle with the addition of a small screen to display song, artist and time information. Based on his checks, Wu believes a player of this kind could be powered by an existing SigmaTel single-chip system-on-a-chip (SOC) and priced profitably at $149 without compromising other members of the iPod family.
On the other hand, Wu said Apple could potentially throw a 2 GB flash chip into an iPod mini that would sport a screen, click-wheel (or possibly scroll-strip), and catalog/sorting functions. However, pricing such a player at $149 may be tough due to the higher-cost of a multi-chip solution from PortalPlayer (controller) and Synaptics (click-wheel), he said. If the player was priced at $199, it would be forced to compete with one of Apple's top-selling iPods: the 4 GB mini. "Either way, we see this product cannibalizing current best-sellers," the analyst concluded.
Still, AmTech research sees Apple's view on storage becoming more agonistic. "Compared to a year ago where Apple's philosophy on flash versus microdrive was clearly in favor of microdrives, we believe Apple has changed its stance," the firm said. Moving forward it's believed that Apple will utilize flash storage in iPods other than the iPod shuffle. The firm notes one of the key reasons behind the move is that Apple realizes there could be a limit to the number of songs a user may want to carry at one time.
Meanwhile, Wu discounted rumors of an imminent 4 GB flash-based iPod, saying prices of 4 GB flash chips have not dropped to a point where it is economical to put them into a digital music player.
Currently, Apple's top two selling iPods are the 512 MB iPod shuffle at $99 and 4 GB iPod mini at $199. Sales of 20 GB iPods and 30 GB iPod photos are also respectable, but sales of 1 GB iPod shuffles at $149, 6 GB iPod minis at $249, and 60 GB iPod photo at $449 continue to lag to their lower-priced versions, the analyst said.
Moving forward AmTech Research sees the iPod mini moving towards a color screen while the 20 GB iPod could be phased out in favor of iPod photos with lower price points.
The firm rates Apple shares "hold" with a $40 price target due to concerns with slowing growth and high investor expectations.
-m.jpg)
Christine McKee
Marko Zivkovic
Wesley Hilliard
Malcolm Owen
William Gallagher
12 Comments
It will be interesting to see what Apple does ... they'll have to walk a fine line as they don't want to take away sales of the 4GB mini. A 2GB sounds interesting but one has to speculate on the price.
Possible prices that I anticipate:
512MB $89
1GB $129
2GB $169
4GB $199
6GB $249
Price a 2GB a bit closer in price to the 4 GB so people are most likely to spend more ... my thinking is as follows ... if you price the 2GB closer to the 4GB's price of $199 shoppers will think it's a better to deal to spend either $169 or $199 for the additional capacity than the $129 for the 1GB. This will bring in more revenue for the bottom line and it's likely that the higer priced models have a higher margain. Then phase out the 1 Gb over time.
Just my 2 cents
Sorry, too cheap, the 512MB would not be sold anymore (apple has never (NEVER!) just reduced the price of the low-end. They instead toss it to make sure only those with $$$ can afford their products. You don't want them turning into commodities. And, really, who cares about prospective prices (no offense) as its all just guess work.
My biggest gripe about flash drives is their current lack of support for HFS+ (at least the shuffle doesn't support it). By lacking that, copying files is more hit or miss, and you end up with all that crap you see on USB flash drives.
I dont think apple is adding a display to the shuffle, it would be like adding a second button to the mouse... just not "simple" enough...
They've already idealized the fact that it doesn't come with a display... or at least that's what they tried to do when they launched it...
I dont think apple is adding a display to the shuffle, it would be like adding a second button to the mouse... just not "simple" enough...
They've already idealized the fact that it doesn't come with a display... or at least that's what they tried to do when they launched it...
I dunno, I could see Steve starting off a "one more thing" at a keynote with something like, "Well as you know the iPod shuffle now controls X% of the flash music player market. *cheers* But ya know, as great as it is, we've made it even better. A lot of people were asking for something the same size, but with a screen. Well, we think we've come up with something truly special..."
Ding, ding, ding.
I dunno, I could see Steve starting off a "one more thing" at a keynote with something like, "Well as you know the iPod shuffle now controls X% of the flash music player market. *cheers* But ya know, as great as it is, we've made it even better. A lot of people were asking for something the same size, but with a screen. Well, we think we've come up with something truly special..."
Ding, ding, ding.
You have to ask yourself though, if there will be no management functionality (as this suggests) exactly what value does including a screen add?
I'm also not sure that a screen could be added to the design without altering it's physical size, you certainly couldn't fit one of any decent size straight onto the current design, there just isn't enough space.
I'll never say never, but I think this guy is waaaaay off.