Apple will report its earnings for the March quarter on Tuesday after the markets close. The results will be disclosed following a tumultuous few weeks for the stock, which saw it drop 11 percent, led by the company's single largest one-day point drop plunge of $25.10.
Analyst Brian White with Topeka Capital Markets isn't concerned about the recent volatility with AAPL stock. He sees the 11 percent drop in recent weeks as "profit taking," rather than any legitimate concerns over Apple's business.
White has forecast sales of 29.6 million iPhones in the March quarter, along with 11.58 million iPads. He believes both of those have upside potential, as the iPhone has continued to expand and the new iPad sold a record 3 million units over its launch weekend.
Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank also has high hopes ahead of Tuesday's earnings report, as he expects Apple to beat consensus revenue and earnings per share estimates of $35.9 billion and $9.78, respectively. He has modeled for Apple to report sales of 26 million iPhones, 10 million iPads and 4.5 million Macs, though he noted that the iPhone number is "conservative."
Whitmore expects that demand for the iPhone 4S will be moderate this summer, as consumers begin to anticipate and wait for Apple's next-generation iPhone, expected to arrive this fall.
In addition to a new iPhone, both Whitmore and White also believe that Apple could launch its long-rumored television set later this year. White also cited the rumored "iPad mini" as a device he expects will see the light of day later this year.
Both analysts also expect that Apple will issue its traditional conservative outlook for the next quarter, as the June quarter is expected to be particularly uncertain with with the performance of the iPhone 4S ahead of this fall's expected iPhone revamp.
That take, shared by both White and Whitmore, is different from Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu, who said last week that he believes Apple's guidance for the June quarter may be less conservative than usual. He cited particularly strong sales of both the iPhone and iPad as reason that Apple may want to be more aggressive in its guidance.
25 Comments
I am confident Apple will beat the pro analyst average of 10 EPS. But to maintain its price Apple needs to beat 11 EPS and to rise it needs 12+ EPS. Independant analyst average is about 12 EPS and the lastest whisper is 12.3
If we get 12+ EPS we are ok but it this is very close. The risk is very high.
I have the following calls in play for earnings:
1 july 600 call, break even is 640
1 august 550 call, break even is 600
1 january 2013 550 call, break even is 620
1 january 2013 600 call, break even is 670
Bought back in today.
So in other words, like usual, no one knows....
1 july 600 call, break even is 640
1 august 550 call, break even is 600
1 january 2013 550 call, break even is 620
1 january 2013 600 call, break even is 670
That is a lot of money invested in the options - i think that's about $25K-$30K in options.
I just bought one option - 1 January 2013 605 call, break even 660.
Debating whether to buy one more?
I am sure you have read this famous quote by Warren Buffett about speculation and investing. I am long Apple as I do not know what will happen in the short term. Best of luck though.
The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities -- that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future -- will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.