Roger Fingas
The iPad's share of the international tablet market will likely shrink again in 2015, falling from 27.6 percent to 25.6 percent year-over-year, according to a five-year forecast issued on Thursday by research firm IDC.
Apple shipped approximately 63.4 million iPads in 2014, but is predicted to ship just 60.1 million this year, IDC said. Android tablets, meanwhile, are expected to solidify industry control, growing from 154.7 million to 158.1 million units, or from a 67.3 percent share to 67.4 percent.
The tablet market as a whole is predicted to increase from 229.7 million to 234.5 million units. The dark horse is said to be Microsoft — while just 11.6 million Windows tablets were shipped in 2014, amounting to a 5.1 percent share, those figures are predicted to increase to 16.3 million and 7 percent during 2015.
"Microsoft is doing a lot of good things right now and we believe the launch of Windows 10 later this year will not only have a significant impact on Microsoft's share of the market, but on the industry as a whole," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC's research director for tablets. "There is an appetite for a platform that can provide a productivity experience that remains consistent across multiple form factors and device types, and we believe Microsoft is well positioned to capture some of that demand."
IDC's forecast in fact calls for Windows to take 14.1 percent of the tablet market by 2019, or roughly 38 million units. The iPad is seen shrinking to a 23 percent share, or 61.9 million units. Android is likewise expected to lose out, dipping to 62.9 percent or 169.5 million units. The global market is anticipated to be 269.4 million tablets.
iPad sales have slumped in recent quarters. The exact causes are unknown, but speculation has pointed to a slow upgrade cycle, and the growing prevalence of smartphones that can duplicate tablet functions. Apple's own iPhone 6 Plus has a 5.5-inch screen, for instance, and in some apps offers an iPad-style interface.
A 12.9-inch "iPad Pro" is rumored to be in development, and could potentially reinvigorate sales if the product offers significant advantages over a phone or standard tablets. The device may go into mass production in September.
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35 Comments
What to say about this rubbish?
Another reason the new MacBook is brilliant. My mom has an iPad mini and LOVES it but she still uses an old clunky Windows machine for email and stuff because typing is easier on it. She would love one of these new MacBooks. And just wait in a couple generations this will become the affordable Mac, the entry point to OS X for a lot of iPad users.
And we know IDC has a terrible record when it comes to everything Apple.
At some point, from 2010 to today, the bulk of the market that was going to get iPads already has one or more. It then becomes a question of how long different segments of this population are willing to wait until they upgrade.
iPad sales will *naturally* level off. No one can expect iPad sales to follow the same course as iPhone sales. iPads are treated more like computers or devices that are complementary to computers. They aren't "priority" devices like smartphones (in terms of the bulk of the market - I'm not including certain industries that may or may not treat iPads and whatever software as mission-critical), and the pace of change is different. It's a totally different upgrade cycle.
I've still got my iPad 2. Bought summer of 2011. Its only recently that I've started thinking about an upgrade. It's great. I love it. Especially handy on the road. But it's been "good enough" in terms of power and features for all this time.
I couldn't, however, imagine hanging on to the same smartphone for all that time. The reasons are (by now) understood intuitively.
Right now Apple is selling 5 different iPad models, (2) iPads and (3) iPad Minis not including wifi/cell variants. And apparently, another model will be coming.
They need to thin out their product matrix a bit. Also, get a little more competitive with storage. Make the base high end models with 64GB of storage (iPad Air 2), base low end models would be okay with 32GB.
All models should have touch ID and full ApplePay compatibility just like the iPhone 6/6+ regardless if Apple thinks people don't want to pull out their tablet to make a payment.
Finally, whatever iPad a person buys, it should come with enough free space in iCloud to back up the entire device.
Apple is an incredibly well run company but I think their focus on margins and profits has lead them down the wrong path.
-kpluck