Mikey Campbell
Countering an analyst report earlier on Wednesday predicting a plateau to Apple Watch demand, investment bank Morgan Stanley says U.S. consumer interest is not just strong, but is increasing, with first-year sales estimated to hit 36 million units.
Citing Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise U.S. Wearables survey, analyst Katy Huberty raised base case Apple Watch sales estimates 20 percent from 30 million units to 36 million units for the device's first 12 months of availability. She considers the estimate conservative, noting it implies only "definitely" buy survey responses (as opposed to "probably" will buy), assumes 50 percent U.S mix despite an existing 30 percent iPhone mix and disregards an increasing iPhone install base.
The survey showed Apple Watch purchase intent consistently rise over the past six months, with the biggest increase recorded after Apple launched in April, Huberty said.
Unfortunately, it might be difficult for Apple to capitalize on demand due to unforeseen production issues reportedly related to defective Taptic Engine vibrators. Over its first six months on sale, Huberty believes Apple's Watch supply will "significantly undershoot" demand, meaning the extra six million unit sales will be generated during the December 2015 and March 2016 quarters.
Earlier today, well-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Watch sales will come in under Street expectations as demand for the device is leveling off. According to his calculations, Apple will sell about 15 million Watch units over fiscal 2015, which ends in September.
In addition to healthy Apple Watch demand, Huberty anticipates an uptick in iPhone sales citing data from Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker. Despite being relatively late in the current product cycle, the analyst estimates Apple will move 50 million iPhones for the quarter ending in June. Fiscal year estimates now stand at240 million and 249 million units for 2015 and 2016, respectively.
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45 Comments
Don't get me wrong, I love my Apple Watch. But 36mm in first year seems high to me. Out of around 40 colleagues (> $200K salary) that have iPhone, 3 Apple Watches so far.
[quote name="mubaili" url="/t/186362/morgan-stanley-apple-watch-demand-up-60-in-us-since-march-estimated-36m-unit-sales-in-first-year#post_2725701"]Don't get me wrong, I love my Apple Watch. But 36mm in first year seems high to me. Out of around 40 colleagues (> $200K salary) that have iPhone, 3 Apple Watches so far.[/quote] Yeah... 36 million in a year would be roughly 100,000 watches sold every day. That does seem a little high...
[quote name="mubaili" url="/t/186362/morgan-stanley-apple-watch-demand-up-60-in-us-since-march-estimated-36m-unit-sales-in-first-year#post_2725701"]Don't get me wrong, I love my Apple Watch. But 36mm in first year seems high to me. Out of around 40 colleagues (> $200K salary) that have iPhone, 3 Apple Watches so far.[/quote] Boy > 200k yearly and only 3 watches. Lots of cocaine I'm guessing
KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo disagrees: http://www.macrumors.com/2015/05/20/apple-watch-demand-slowing-kuo/
Aw, c'mon. Kuo of KGI Securities just predicted today that AppleWatch sales would be way down due to DECREASED demand. He said Apple would be lucky to sell 15 million AppleWatches this year and that would be considered greatly missed expectations and a disappointment to Wall Street investors. These are the things I don't understand. Two analysts look at AppleWatch trends and give totally opposite projections. Who knows which one to believe? I'll just go with Tim Cook's assessment that AppleWatch will have good sales although I don't recall him giving any sales numbers. I'd think if Apple sold only 15 million AppleWatches this year, it would be considered a successful launch, but that's just the way I see it. I'm simply not as greedy as those big Wall Street investor pricks are. Anyway, I feel that only Apple can decide what sales numbers are good because they're the only ones who could have an idea of demand of a completely new product. These jackass pundits wouldn't know a damn thing about Apple's sales goals.