Apple Inc. plans extensive use of NAND flash memory in future Mac and iPod models, which will include a new sub-notebook and widescreen video iPod, according to one Wall Street analyst.
"This is a new subnotebook form factor that will use NAND flash as primary storage," he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday morning. "Our sources indicate that Apple would like to introduce the product in [the second half of 2007] to further capitalize on its strong MacBook growth, but timing will be dependent on NAND vendors' ability to drive down pricing further, making it economically attractive for Apple."
At the same time, Wu confirmed ongoing industry speculation that Apple will inevitably shift its flagship video iPod players to NAND from hard disk drive (HDD) storage, but warned the transition was unlikely in the near-term.
"Our sources indicate that while Apple plans to migrate the rest of its iPod product line to NAND flash from HDDs (the current vPod is the only model remaining), fairly low price points and customer appetite for high storage capacities will likely prevent this from happening until late 2007-2008," he told clients. The analyst noted that despite the aggressive price reductions in NAND flash over the past few years, his analysis indicates that mobile HDD storage still has around a 7 to 8 times the price advantage of NAND, which is down slightly from 10 times a year ago.
"Today 1 GB of NAND flash costs around $5, meaning 32 GB costs $160, which compares to $22 for the same amount of HDD storage," he explained. "Through 2007, NAND flash in notebook PCs will likely be limited to the high-end/ultra-portable market."
In addition to schooling clients on the price effectiveness of NAND versus HDD, Wu said he has learned that a widescreen video iPod "won't likely ship until after iPhone ships in the June timeframe to not take away from iPhone's launch." In the meantime, he anticipates storage capacity increases to the current line of video players, which are presently at 30GB and 80GB, respectively.
The American Technology Research analyst maintained his Buy rating on shares of the consumer electronics maker with a price target of $115 per-share.
"We see several additional catalysts in the quarters ahead, including Mac OS X Leopard, new movie and carrier partners, lower cost cell phones, and further extension of its core technology franchise into new business areas," he wrote.
34 Comments
I think it's a given, the only question is when, this year or a few years from now. Right now, I'm not convinced that solid state storage in place of 2.5" notebook drives has a worthwhile advantage other than mechanical durability, but you trade that for far fewer write cycles and much less capacity. Mechanical durability is more important for iPods, and the write cycles aren't as much of a limitation, but cost is.
And in a couple years HD's will STILL be less expensive than NAND flash at the same capacities.
Hmmm...iSuppli puts Samsung 1GB x 4 NAND at $42.50 back in September. A 32GB SSD would cost $340 for the flash + controller with Apple's pricing. You can't buy the Samsung 32GB SSD on the market but it uses the same NAND as in the 4GB iPod.
Soo...$160 for 32GB is about half the pricing from Sept which falls in line with SanDisk's warning that NAND pricing suffered a 50% component cost reduction in the last few months (though I wonder if Wu is basing his $5/GB estimate on that same info).
With the new 2GB NAND starting production soon (Toshiba claims March, Samsung just says "spring") the older flash should become more widely available after Apple transistions to the new part and hopefully we'll see SSDs on the open market for around that $200-$300 price point.
We should see Apple's flash iPod lineup get a bump 3 months or so after Samsung gets the new chips into mass production if they follow the rough timeline from when the []b1GB[b]chip appeared (June 2006).
I can see a 32GB video iPod for possibly $299 if they can get 32GB of NAND less than that $160 price. The Toshiba 1.8" 30GB retails for $136 and iSuppli's estimate in October was $151 for the 30GB iPod.
So possible line up is 32GB SSD Video iPod for $299 and a 100GB HDD video iPod for $349. Then Nanos from 4GB to 16GB and a 2GB shuffle. When depends on if they want to maintain 50% gross margins and how much Samsung will discount the new NAND for them.
Vinea
Edit: Bolded typos fixed. Well, not typos, mental f*rts. The 4GB chip in the Nano is the 1GB NAND stacked in a 4 layer chip (2x2). They are 8Gb (gigabit) NANDs with new 16Gb NANDs coming out which will be 2GB NANDs in various packaging. Presumably up to 8GB in a single package.
I don't know much about the tech behind all of this, but here's what I thought of yesterday:
Why put a single (for example) 32gb NAND drive into a computer when you can put 4 8gb NAND drives in and pool them with ZFS? It would be cheaper (i would think) but you still see "1" volume when you turn on the laptop. It's my understanding that ZFS is creeping into the Leopard builds and it would allow for taking multiple drives and pooling them in some sort of "dynamic striping" raid configuration or something. I dunno, just my 2 cents, but I could see it being a possibility, at least until NAND prices fall dramatically enough to compete with regular HDD.
I think it's a given, the only question is when, this year or a few years from now. Right now, I'm not convinced that solid state storage in place of 2.5" notebook drives has a worthwhile advantage other than mechanical durability, but you trade that for far fewer write cycles and much less capacity. Mechanical durability is more important for iPods, and the write cycles aren't as much of a limitation, but cost is.
Yeah. I'm not sure how it'll work for iPods, but I think the most practical use for NAND in a notebook (or subnotebook) would be to speed boot times and possibly to pre-cache some programs, but to still use a hard disk for the remaining data storage. That way, the write cycles aren't used up that much (giving a longer life), and the costs are kept low.
Definitely interested in a subnotebook...