Slash LaneSpeaking to clients in a research note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said his latest round of supply chain checks lead him to believe Apple's announcements at the conference will center around new Macs and "potentially a sneak preview of Mac OS X 10.6 Leopard."
However, the analyst also cited "sources" as he echoed a pair of speculative reports (1, 2) from Apple bloggers this week, indicating the remote possibility that the Cupertino-based company may introduce a new "consumer device" that may be "an updated version of AppleTV and/or Time Capsule with enhanced capabilities including the ability to access personal content from anywhere on the Internet."
"Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an Apple event," he said. "However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."
Wu continues to believe that Apple is also hard at work on new, lower-cost iPhones and other larger form factor touchscreen devices, but doesn't expect those products to see daylight until sometime in the future.
"Our sense is that investor expectations [for Macworld] are fairly modest since it was announced that CEO Steve Jobs wouldn't be the keynote speaker," he added. "Nonetheless, we view new Macs as a positive catalyst as Apple's desktop business (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Pro) needs a refresh to re-ignite sales."
Meanwhile, the Kaufman Bros. analyst said his sources indicate that the recently refreshed MacBooks and MacBook Pros continue to experience robust demand. That said, he still called upon Apple to loosen its grip on premium pricing and introduce lower price points on some of its products given the macroeconomic environment.
"We continue to believe Apple is one of the better names to own in this tough macroeconomic environment, given its strong fundamentals," he said.
Wu maintains a Buy rating and $120 price target on shares of Apple.
Malcolm Owen
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25 Comments
Reasonable summary for Kaufman Bros clients who don't read rumor message boards.
Speaking of boards, why do I feel like hitting Shaw Wu with a 2 x 4 every time I read
one of his releases?
The idea that SJ has to give a keynote for a major project likely goes against the whole goal of moving him out of that position; I would argue that the opposite is more likely-- a major product introduced by someone in the line to succession so people can see how great he is.
With a month to prepare for the keynote with good training, I think you could expect a great sales show from an ameture.
I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.
Saying that there will be no new products because Steve Jobs is not doing the keynote is false reasoning to begin with, and to base an analysis on it just shows (yet again) how much hocus-pocus and general BS goes into the average financial analysts report.
Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.
I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.
Possible, it depends on how the release was worded. They might have hedged their wording a bit.
There were a few that did, but they were heckled for breaking with the crowd and were told they didn't know what they were talking about. Like every other culture, subculture, industry or trade, there is a risk of group think.
Phil presents this time, but he should call up Steve via iChat to give the "one more thing"...