Tight AMOLED supply causing problems for manufacturing, could impact Apple

A good, detailed answer to the dimwits who say, "Finally, Apple is getting around to OLED," etc.

Until now, in fact maybe not even now, there has been insufficient capacity among suppliers, particularly from the one supplier that has been pushing hardest to develop production, Samsung.

The same thing happened with Apple and larger-screened phones a few years ago. The 6 and 6 Plus had to wait a critical two years until display makers could expand production capacity of LTPS LCD screens. This was never covered properly by the tech press, as far as I know, which is why this story on OLED production stands in high favorable contrast for background.

Not at all.  Apple isn't getting around to it now because there is sufficient capacity, but because Samsung is willing to build out extra capacity because they have committed to contracts.  Apple could have initiated their commitment at an earlier date which would have lead to the capacity being available sooner, one would imagine.  Obviously they had their reasons for not doing so.

cnocbui said:

Not at all.  Apple isn't getting around to it now because there is sufficient capacity, but because Samsung is willing to build out extra capacity because they have committed to contracts.  Apple could have initiated their commitment at an earlier date which would have lead to the capacity being available sooner, one would imagine.  Obviously they had their reasons for not doing so.

One would imagine wrongly. Samsung only just arrived at competence about two years ago. That is when DisplyMate, for example, was first able to grant state of the art status to Samsung's Super AMOLED or whatever screens.

If you must imagine something that points to Apple's servility, think of them burning in samples in their lab of Samsung devices day and night trying to find failure points or weakness details. After many months of testing they can maybe start negotiating. "How soon can you build out fabs? Yeah, we know, it's going to cost billions ($7.6?), but we see you finally got the process and the technology together, so we're ready. Are you?"

On the supplier side, I've seen a figure like $13 billion in spending on capacity for an OLED world that includes Apple. Apple's gamble on a smooth transition to OLED is probably going to cost tens of billions. If you think they can turn out strategic transformations like this the instant Samsung arrives at competence, you are cursed with a bedeviling imagination.

flaneur said:

cnocbui said:

Not at all.  Apple isn't getting around to it now because there is sufficient capacity, but because Samsung is willing to build out extra capacity because they have committed to contracts.  Apple could have initiated their commitment at an earlier date which would have lead to the capacity being available sooner, one would imagine.  Obviously they had their reasons for not doing so.

One would imagine wrongly. Samsung only just arrived at competence about two years ago. That is when DisplyMate, for example, was first able to grant state of the art status to Samsung's Super AMOLED or whatever screens.

If you must imagine something that points to Apple's servility, think of them burning in samples in their lab of Samsung devices day and night trying to find failure points or weakness details. After many months of testing they can maybe start negotiating. "How soon can you build out fabs? Yeah, we know, it's going to cost billions ($7.6?), but we see you finally got the process and the technology together, so we're ready. Are you?"

On the supplier side, I've seen a figure like $13 billion in spending on capacity for an OLED world that includes Apple. Apple's gamble on a smooth transition to OLED is probably going to cost tens of billions. If you think they can turn out strategic transformations like this the instant Samsung arrives at competence, you are cursed with a bedeviling imagination.

Fair points.  I think they could have moved a year ago and put their orders in then.

flaneur said:

A good, detailed answer to the dimwits who say, "Finally, Apple is getting around to OLED," etc.

Until now, in fact maybe not even now, there has been insufficient capacity among suppliers, particularly from the one supplier that has been pushing hardest to develop production, Samsung.

The same thing happened with Apple and larger-screened phones a few years ago. The 6 and 6 Plus had to wait a critical two years until display makers could expand production capacity of LTPS LCD screens. This was never covered properly by the tech press, as far as I know, which is why this story on OLED production stands in high favorable contrast for background.

Too many people here think new technology can hit the market over night.   New manufacturing processes are not built over night by any means.  I've watched on company spend two years just building the hardware for a high volume line.  

As for OLED displays and supply, I'm not even sure Apple will stop at OLED, they could easily consider a different technology.    Except for specmanship I don't see OLEDs offering a lot for the average consumer.    The odd impact on battery life will be difficult to digest too.  

As for LCD's I never saw anything to indicate that displays where a hold up to larger phones.     In any event it certainly looks like Apple read the market wrong when it comes to large phones.   Frankly I've never had a desire to carry those beasts around everyday.  Sales of the SE highlight that people value size highly even if it isn't bleeding edge tech.  I really believe that Apple was slow seeing that there was some market for large phones.