KGI: iPhone 7 won't sell as well as the iPhone 6s

Contrary to remarks by carriers, one analyst firm is increasing how many iPhone 7 family devices that it thinks Apple will sell before the end of the year, but still expects fewer sales than the iPhone 6s garnered in 2015.

According to research provided to AppleInsider by KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the research firm has escalated its sales estimates from 65 million to between 70 million and 75 million, mostly because of the recall of the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 and the dual-camera feature in the iPhone 7 Plus.

However, the analyst firm believes artificial scarcity explains carrier reports of sell-outs and strong consumer demand, with both factors "not entirely due to market demand." KGI points to market share gains from carriers due to promotions inflating numbers, as well as a larger amount of launch countries spreading out stocks leading to depleted inventories world-wide.

Kuo points to low yields on the jet black casing, between 60 and 70 percent, as another reason for low stock of the desired iPhone 7 Plus. KGI is suggesting investors take profit now on near-term stock highs.

On Sept. 20, multiple South Korean analysts had a different viewpoint. In a combined report, Song Eun-jeong from Hi Investment & Securities believed that Apple can seize the top position in the premium smartphone market on the strength of the carrier promotions that KGI derided.

In the same report, IBK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo revealed that South Korean suppliers had orders for components to build 80 to 85 million iPhone 7 units pre-launch, with an increase of 17 percent to 25 percent recently, pushing quantities over 100 million phones before the end of the year.

T-Mobile Chief Executive John Legere declared demand for the iPhone 7 a "phenomenon," and said that preorders up to Sept. 12 had been "like four times bigger than the iPhone 6."

80 Comments

tommikele 599 comments · 12 Years

About 8 years ago

safi said:

The desire for constant growth needs to stop. Let Apple work out what it has to do and stop this ridiculous grow grow grow culture. Yes, I believe it probably won't sell as well as the 6S but this is a sign of strength for Apple. Rather than coming out with another gimmick design to boost sales, the company puts in thought and effort and withholds new products until they are perfect! Which other company does this? For fucks sake, leave Apple alone. I wish it would just become a private company and ditch these greedy leaches AKA shareholders. Cook/Ive are probably running the company long-term and not for these greedy leeches.

What possibly makes you think it would be different if Apple were a privately held company? Where do you expect the $600 billion or more is going to come from to take them private? And you somehow think the whoever comes up with that will settle for smaller returns than Apple currently produces? Those "greedy leeches" you so easily criticize are the ones who own this company. People like you do not. If you don;tlie the direction your beloved Apple is taking then acquire a stake and speak out and marshal other owners to your side. You also make the classic mistake of focusing on the short term and analysts limited time span projections. Those pronouncements have some relevancy to the short term investor and traders. They have little relevancy to investors and those betting on the longer term future except where they may indicate longer term trends. I'll sum it up for you - You don't really understand investment versus short term and you should probably stick to tech and leave finance and securities alone. Additionally, you are not an owner of Apple and have no say. You do have an opinion and are entitled to that, but as the saying goes about assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

EsquireCats 1268 comments · 8 Years

About 8 years ago

No one will buy the 6s, it's too similar to the 6. No one will buy the 7, it's too similar to the 6s. And yet the most accurate sales guidance has always been from Apple's quarterly meetings... funny that.

512ke 781 comments · 19 Years

About 8 years ago

AI can we please start a new feature called analysts scorecard, which tracks in a very simple and easy-to-read way, what each major analyst predicts vs what actually happened. I personally think that would become a hugely popular feature on this site.

Heck we we cold even invent a new kind of fantasy football of Apple predictions: pick your dream team of analysts/charlatans.

foggyhill 4767 comments · 10 Years

About 8 years ago

This is close to incoherent....
The number they were floating initially was 80-100M...
the 6s sold 80M I think and 78M for the 6, mostly because the China sales were displaced to after the new years.
The numbers will likely be close to 6s, maybe slightly higher with a much higher ASP (128G 7+ being in such demand).