iPhone XS Max, iPhone XS not quite as constrained as the iPhone X was at launch

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if you slept in this morning and didn't get a pre-order of the iPhone XS Max in within minutes of opening, you won't have to wait as long to get your order this year, if Gene Munster's numbers are correct.

Preorders for Apple's new iPhones began at 3 a.m. on Friday, and Gene Munster of Loup Ventures has observed that lead times for the XS and XS Max are considerably shorter than the ones for the iPhone X last year.

"Compared to the iPhone X launch last year, the iPhone Xs lead times were, on average, 68 percent shorter, and the Xs Max lead times were 43 percent shorter," Munster wrote on Loup Ventures' website. "Put a different way, for every minute after 3:00 AM you waited to order an iPhone Xs, it cost you 3.2 hours in delayed delivery. For every minute you waited to order the Xs Max, it cost you 5.8 hours. Last year, for every minute you waited to order the X, it cost you 10.1 hours."

Munster added that the longer lead times for the more expensive iPhone XS Max indicate a positive for higher ASPs. He noted, however, that with this year's models the higher end is arriving on the market first while the iPhone X came last in 2017. In addition, the total volume of available iPhones remains unknown.

Loup Ventures came up with the data by checking the lead times eight times, between the start of orders at 3:00 AM and 10:00 AM ET.

iPhone XS Max

According to Loup Venture's chart, customers ordering the iPhone XS between 3:01 a.m. and 3:20 a.m. on Thursday could expect to receive the device at launch on Sept. 21. That was true for most configurations up until 3:40 a.m., except for a 2-3 week delay for those ordering a 256GB model in silver or space grey from Verizon, or in 256 or 512GB size in space grey from AT&T.

An AppleInsider staffer ordered a 256 GB iPhone XS, in silver, on Verizon, waiting until just after 8 a.m. on Friday. The order has a lead time of 1-2 weeks. Across the entire staff's orders, and data gleaned from social media by AppleInsider Munster's availability figures appear to be accurate

Customers ordering the iPhone XS Max between 3:00 and 3:20 could expect a delivery at launch unless they were ordering the 512 GB space grey edition on Verizon, in which case the delay was 2-3 weeks. By 3:40, however, just about every edition of the XS Max listed a 2-3 week or 3-4 week delay. The XS Max also suddenly got shorter lead times at 10 a.m.

iPhone XS chart

The iPhone X last year, by contrast, had delays at every time after 3:01, sometimes extending as long as 5-6 weeks, according to Loup's chart.

The third new iPhone, the iPhone XR, does not open for preorder until Oct. 19.


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