Walmart forecast to usurp Apple as No. 3 online retailer in U.S., Amazon widens overwhelming lead

Big-box retailer Walmart is predicted to overtake Apple as America's third-largest online retailer by the end of 2018, a result of a wider slowdown in smartphone and consumer electronic sales, according to a report Friday.

According to new statistics from eMarketer, spotted by TechCrunch, Walmart will capture $20.91 billion online retail spending this year, a figure that equates to 4 percent of the market. The number is up from 3.7 percent in a previous forecast from the same research firm.

The performance is expected to unseat Apple from its current spot as the No. 3 online retailer in the U.S. For 2018, eMarketer's latest estimates suggest the iPhone maker will bump its ecommerce share 0.1 percent to end the year at 3.9 percent.

Apple is expected to show a net positive of 18 percent, less than last year's growth, due to what eMarketer describes as a domestic slowdown in electronic device sales. By contrast, Walmart's online sales — including profits from Sam's Club and Jet.com — will grow 39.4 percent, a rate bested only by online home goods store Wayfair's 40.1 percent.

"Walmart's ecommerce business has been firing on all cylinders lately," said eMarketer principal analyst Andrew Lipsman. "The retail giant continues to make smart acquisitions to extend its ecommerce portfolio and attract younger and more affluent shoppers. But more than anything, Walmart has caught its stride with a fast-growing online grocery business, which is helped in large part by the massive consumer adoption of click-and-collect."

Ahead of both Walmart and Apple is eBay, which will see its share of the online market decline from 7.6 percent in 2017 to 7.2 percent this year.

Amazon remains king of the online marketplace with a massive 48 percent share of the market in 2018, according to eMarketer's November forecast. The ecommerce titan is due to rake in more than $252 billion in the U.S., up more than 29 percent year-over-year.

17 Comments

radarthekat 3901 comments · 12 Years

About 5 years ago

I’m guessing this is a metric Apple could care less about. Any comparison of Apple’s online sales to these huge low margin distributors of other peoples’ stuff is in no way a measure of Apple’s success or failure.

tbornot 116 comments · 9 Years

Walmart is all in using Windows as their internal systems. It’s only a matter of time until their systems are hacked and they slide down the Target slippery slope into fourth place...

theothergeoff 2081 comments · 14 Years

tbornot said:

Walmart is all in using Windows as their internal systems. It’s only a matter of time until their systems are hacked and they slide down the Target slippery slope into fourth place...

well... TGT stock is up 98% from Oct 2008 (they were hacked 11/08). WMT stock is up only 75%. Such slippery slopes I wish my stock portfolio had.

and 'it's only a matter of time....' is a a wonderful basis for 'winning' an argument...

'yeah, the Dutch East India Company is the largest corporation in the world, but it 'was only a matter of time' [150 years] before cheap brazilian sugar and greedy investors wanting huge dividends knocked it out of the global #1 corpo-nation status.'

'yeah, gorillas ruled the Serengeti 200,000 years ago, but was only a matter of time [190,000 years] before homo sapiens used their advanced communication and problem-solving skills to evolve beyond tribal units and into socio economic alliances, and eventually take over the world....'

radarthekat said:

I’m guessing this is a metric Apple could care less about. Any comparison of Apple’s online sales to these huge low margin distributors of other peoples’ stuff is in no way a measure of Apple’s success or failure.

Agreed. and for me, Apple's online experience, while pleasant, means little when buying 'personal hardware'. Online sales are 'the easy ones' for Apple.

When it comes to selling, Apple's physical store experience is what they are most focussed on, as the immersion into the Apple culture begins with the eyes and fingers.... you have to 'feel' apple product to truly be sold. And because of that, they tend to focus on the '$/sqft' comparison, and even that, I think, is more for the big investment houses to justify maintaining their long positions

Targets stock is up, but they have been forever knocked out of the running for biggest retailer. They were doing fine, but the Others now have such a lead that Target is an also-ran.