Investors split about whether Apple can maintain growth, survey suggests

Apple logo on building

A small questionnaire sent out to a handful of Apple investors suggests that there isn't a consensus on whether the Cupertino tech giant can maintain its growth across 2022, according to JP Morgan.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee analyzed responses from a buy-side survey conducted after Apple's first quarter results. The survey only had 15 response, but Chatterjee says the data could "help where the Bull and Bear case for Apple lies in relation to FY22 performance."

The bull case, for example, would see Apple maintain double-digit revenue growth in 2022, led by execution-led upside to implied guidance for the upcoming March quarter. A bull case expects 10% to 15% revenue growth year-over-year in 2022.

In the survey, the majority of the 15 respondents believe that iPhone revenue growth is unlikely to be maintained at the rate that Apple saw in Q2. JP Morgan, however, believes that a stronger than expected mix, as well as better demand for iPhone 13 and iPhone SE models, drive upside to its current estimates for growth.

Despite the fact that investors believe iPhone growth will decelerate in the coming quarters, Chatterjee notes that Apple handset demand has consistently outperformed investor expectations. That supports expectations for iPhone volume upside.

On Services growth, expectations are higher. The majority of respondents in JP Morgan's small survey say they believe Apple will see growth in the 15% to 20% year-over-year range.

Most of the respondents are also "comfortable" with a 20x to 25x multiple range, suggesting Apple has achieved structural re-rating from a few years prior. Apple shares are currently trading at 26x earnings, implying a bull case of a multiple above 25x.

"The survey results indicate that the sentiment on Apple shares and the likelihood of outperformance this year relative to other Big Tech stocks remains balanced, with about only half of the respondents expecting Apple shares to outperform other Big Tech stocks," Chatterjee writes.

The analyst maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $210, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 30x on his 2023 earnings estimate of $7.02.