Apple's modem may not surface in iPhones until 2025

Qualcomm is likely to remain a supplier of modems to Apple for a few more years, analysts expect, with the prospect of an iPhone using an Apple-designed modem potentially pushed back to 2025 at the earliest.

Chip maker Qualcomm is, thanks to a patent lawsuit settlement in 2019, a chief supplier of modems to Apple, but the iPhone maker is still coming up with its own version. However, it is thought there could be quite a while to wait before Apple actually switches to using one of its own creation.

In a note to investors by Haitong International Securities analyst Jeff Pu, seen by MacRumors, it is anticipated that the Qualcomm Snapdragon X75 modem will be used in the 2024 iPhone. The unannounced modem, taking over from the X70, will be made by TSMC using a 4nm process to introduce power efficiencies.

The iPhone 15, due in 2023, is reckoned to use the X70, which could provide download speeds of up to 10Gbps, as well as reduced power requirements.

The investor note correlates with the view of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in July, who offered the iPhone 15 could continue to use Qualcomm modems.

Apple's fight to make a modem is a potentially lucrative opportunity for the company, including reducing cost savings and fine-tuning a modem for specific intended purposes through deeper integration with other components. It would also offer Apple a way to work without relying on a third party's decisions limiting or forcing Apple into using components in specific ways.

It has already thrown at least $1 billion at the problem with its purchase of Intel's modem arm, but it remains to be seen as to how much more it has to spend to reach its modem goal.

18 Comments

KBuffett 8 Years · 101 comments

About 2 years ago

I’m don’t know much about this type of thing.

Why is it so difficult to make these 5G modems with so few players?

avon b7 20 Years · 8046 comments

JP234 said:

People wonder where new Apple revenue streams will emerge. Being a chipmaker? Not a bad idea right now. Certainly helped them out recently during the chip shortages.

Definitely not, unless they are willing to sell to competitors. 98% of all chips produced are not on bleeding edge nodes and there is a lot of available capacity coming on line. At the cutting edge there is a lot of risk involved, especially as we will see a move away from silicon at some point. Apple isn't into that kind of risk. Not to mention the investment needed (and the politics!).

rob53 13 Years · 3312 comments

Apple should come out with a 6G modem or something similar without using (proprietary) standards based 5G technology. We already have to deal with different cellular companies using different frequencies so why not shut Qualcomm down but coming up with a totally different cellular product that Apple puts into an open standard, open domain, whatever it would be called with open use patents to make everything free to cellular providers and mobile device makers. No more paying a single company for the "right" to use a cellular standard.

Marvin 18 Years · 15355 comments

KBuffett said:

I’m don’t know much about this type of thing.
Why is it so difficult to make these 5G modems with so few players?

It looks like it has similar manufacturing challenges as a CPU and battery efficiency, signal quality and compatibility. Only multi-billion dollar tech companies would be able to attempt making them:

https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/blogs/components/rf-wireless/rf-and-wireless/2021/02/11/cmos-at-4-nm-enables-qualcomm-s-fastest-5g-modem-rf-solution

Intel managed to make a cellular modem but found it wasn't viable to make it profitable.

Cost to manufacture, time to market and probably a patent minefield outweigh not buying from existing manufacturers for now.

Apple doesn't even have to make the best modem, as long as the connection is stable with competitive bandwidth, that's all they need. They'd probably be able to improve battery efficiency vs Qualcomm, which would be good for the Watch on cellular.