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iPhone 15 product mix concerns caused by reduced shipment times

iPhone 15 Pro

Lead times for iPhone 15 models have dropped for the second week in a row, an availability tracker claims, but there is fear that the changes may indicate a weaker mix of iPhone models for 2023.

On October 1, the third week of J.P. Morgan's Product Availability Tracker revealed a dip in delivery lead times for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro lines. One week later on October 8, the tracker seen by AppleInsider has offered a similar report.

The average global delivery lead times now track the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus at 15 days apiece for Week 4, versus 17 days each in Week 3. The iPhone 15 Pro remains static at 29 days, while the Pro Max is down from 46 days to 35 days.

By comparison, the at-home timing for the iPhone 14 range tracked at 2 days, 6 days, 33 days, and 40 days for the respective models.

The report points out that the higher average days for the non-Pro models in 2023 versus the 2022 editions, as well as the lower average lead times for the Pro counterparts, may not be a good sign, especially for two successive weeks of decline.

Global iPhone availability tracker lead times in days [J.P. Morgan]
Global iPhone availability tracker lead times in days [J.P. Morgan]

The lower figures are "reinforcing the likelihood of elevated lead times for the high-end iPhone 15 models immediately following the launch having been driven by early order momentum and/or supply availability, which is now fading," the note states. It may also indicate that the "mix of sales within iPhone 15 Series is tracking weaker than prior launches, with a higher proportion of volumes being allocated to the low-end models."

On a regional basis, the US lead times for the non-Pro models are static at 15 days each, with the Pro up to 29 days versus 28 days in Week 3, and the Pro Max dropped from 54 days to 36 days.

In China, iPhone 15 and Plus lead times are now down to 14 days and 15 days respectively from 21 days one week prior. The Pro is again stuck at 29 days, and the Pro Max went down from 43 days to 36 days.

Over in Europe, Germany lead times were static at 15 days for the non-Pro models while the Pro and Pro Max went down to 30 days and 37 days respectively from 32 days and 42 days.

In the UK, the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus again stayed static at 15 days each, with Pro down from 28 days to 26 days, and Pro Max down from 44 days to 33 days.