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Apple China iPhone downturn expected to continue throughout 2024

Futian District, Shenzhen

Apple's iPhone sales in China will probably worsen throughout 2024, according to Jefferies analysts, with a double-digit decline forecast for sales in the country.

Despite the opinion of some analysts that Apple's being "resilient" in China, the company's sales have still taken a knock. If analysts from Jefferies are to be believed, the downturn may continue further.

According to a note released by Jefferies on Sunday and seen by Bloomberg, industry checks indicate that the rest of the mobile industry grew in December, while Apple endured a sluggish start for the iPhone 15 generation. It is claimed that the slower sales has resulted in a 30% year-on-year decline for the iPhone.

This is apparently in part due to Huawei's introduction of the Mate 60 Pro and a new made-in-China chip. This is thought to have helped Huawei claim some customers it had previously lost to Apple.

In December, Jefferies says Apple saw a double-digit fall in volumes, with forecasts for a similar decline in 2024. As part of its findings, Jefferies noted the increase in discounts on Apple's smartphone range across multiple online stores, which analysts reckoned ate into the average selling price without improving sales volumes.

The Jefferies note is a continuation of opinions from most analysts that Apple's China sales could be in trouble. In October, Piper Sandler reduced its expectations for Apple's December quarter over weak iPhone demand in the country, while in November, Ming-Chi Kuo declared shipments in China declined more than expected.

November 11's Singles Day, a major sales event in China, apparently saw Apple's iPhone sales dip year-on-year by 4%, while Huawei smartphones enjoyed a 66% increase.