Apple China iPhone downturn expected to continue throughout 2024

I'd be surprised if the Huawei "chip" and Mate 60 are all that relevant to Apple's sales slowdown; Huawei is selling about a million a month of the Mate 60. It just isn't being produced in any volume, and ASML DUV shipments were blocked before all existing orders were fulfilled, straining future production further;

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request

I'd put more on the fact that China's economy is slowing, for various reasons;

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/01/08/economy/xi-china-economy-new-trade-war/

China is in for a rude awakening if it thinks that it will be able to "dump" excess manufacturing output in the West. Meanwhile, consumers in China are likely reducing their expenditures while they await better economic news.

tmay said:

I'd be surprised if the Huawei "chip" and Mate 60 are all that relevant to Apple's sales slowdown; Huawei is selling about a million a month of the Mate 60. It just isn't being produced in any volume, and ASML DUV shipments were blocked before all existing orders were fulfilled, straining future production further;

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request

I'd put more on the fact that China's economy is slowing, for various reasons;

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/01/08/economy/xi-china-economy-new-trade-war/

China is in for a rude awakening if it thinks that it will be able to "dump" excess manufacturing output in the West. Meanwhile, consumers in China are likely reducing their expenditures while they await better economic news.

I'd say the 'million a month' figure is way off target. 

Earlier projections put Mate 60 series demand at up to 17 million units. 

The P70 series should be announced next month. 

Volume production isn't an issue. Enough volume production is an issue. 

This is crystal clear because if Huawei couldn't produce enough chipsets for the Mate 60 demand it would never have announced other models (and tablets) using the same production facilities.

The 'problem' is that even having volume capacity, demand is outstripping it at the moment. 

Demand for 2024 (all Huawei phone models) is projected at 64,000,000. That is from the report cited in this article.

https://www.asiafinancial.com/apple-facing-rough-year-in-china-as-huawei-gains-market-share

Huawei is also rumoured to have put up to 10,000,000 folding phones on its list of goals:https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/01/05/news-huawei-issues-rush-orders-for-crucial-components-focusing-on-cis-for-foldable-phones/#:~:text=In%20a%20strong%20push%20for,million%20units%20shipped%20last%20year.

Orders for Huawei cars are currently running very high (all of them running HarmonyOS). 

New agreements with automanufacturers have also been signed. 

Some rumours even point to HarmonyOS overtaking iOS in China this year:

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/01/04/huawei-homegrown-os-harmonyos-second-most-used-in-china-apple-ios/

Although everything is speculation in terms of how things will play out, Apple has competition and it is very probably feeling the pinch to a degree. 

Its MatePad Pro 13.2inch OLED tablet with NearLink M-pencil etc has also been very well received. 

avon b7 said:

tmay said:

I'd be surprised if the Huawei "chip" and Mate 60 are all that relevant to Apple's sales slowdown; Huawei is selling about a million a month of the Mate 60. It just isn't being produced in any volume, and ASML DUV shipments were blocked before all existing orders were fulfilled, straining future production further;

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request

I'd put more on the fact that China's economy is slowing, for various reasons;

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/01/08/economy/xi-china-economy-new-trade-war/

China is in for a rude awakening if it thinks that it will be able to "dump" excess manufacturing output in the West. Meanwhile, consumers in China are likely reducing their expenditures while they await better economic news.

I'd say the 'million a month' figure is way off target. 

Earlier projections put Mate 60 series demand at up to 17 million units. 

The P70 series should be announced next month. 

Volume production isn't an issue. Enough volume production is an issue. 

This is crystal clear because if Huawei couldn't produce enough chipsets for the Mate 60 demand it would never have announced other models (and tablets) using the same production facilities.

The 'problem' is that even having volume capacity, demand is outstripping it at the moment. 

Demand for 2024 (all Huawei phone models) is projected at 64,000,000. That is from the report cited in this article.

https://www.asiafinancial.com/apple-facing-rough-year-in-china-as-huawei-gains-market-share

Huawei is also rumoured to have put up to 10,000,000 folding phones on its list of goals:https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/01/05/news-huawei-issues-rush-orders-for-crucial-components-focusing-on-cis-for-foldable-phones/#:~:text=In%20a%20strong%20push%20for,million%20units%20shipped%20last%20year.

Orders for Huawei cars are currently running very high (all of them running HarmonyOS). 

New agreements with automanufacturers have also been signed. 

Some rumours even point to HarmonyOS overtaking iOS in China this year:

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/01/04/huawei-homegrown-os-harmonyos-second-most-used-in-china-apple-ios/

Although everything is speculation in terms of how things will play out, Apple has competition and it is very probably feeling the pinch to a degree. 

Its MatePad Pro 13.2inch OLED tablet with NearLink M-pencil etc has also been very well received. 

I wish Huawei well on selling "64M of all models" in 2024.

tmay said:

I'd be surprised if the Huawei "chip" and Mate 60 are all that relevant to Apple's sales slowdown; Huawei is selling about a million a month of the Mate 60. It just isn't being produced in any volume, and ASML DUV shipments were blocked before all existing orders were fulfilled, straining future production further;

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request

I'd put more on the fact that China's economy is slowing, for various reasons;

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/01/08/economy/xi-china-economy-new-trade-war/

China is in for a rude awakening if it thinks that it will be able to "dump" excess manufacturing output in the West. Meanwhile, consumers in China are likely reducing their expenditures while they await better economic news.

They will be able to sell to THE REST OF THE WORLD, no different than BYD and others selling EV's or exploding electric bikes.

tmay said:

I'd be surprised if the Huawei "chip" and Mate 60 are all that relevant to Apple's sales slowdown; Huawei is selling about a million a month of the Mate 60. It just isn't being produced in any volume, and ASML DUV shipments were blocked before all existing orders were fulfilled, straining future production further;

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/asml-halts-hi-tech-chip-making-exports-to-china-reportedly-after-us-request

I'd put more on the fact that China's economy is slowing, for various reasons;

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/01/08/economy/xi-china-economy-new-trade-war/

China is in for a rude awakening if it thinks that it will be able to "dump" excess manufacturing output in the West. Meanwhile, consumers in China are likely reducing their expenditures while they await better economic news.

Thanks tmay for posting this opinion in a much better fashion than I was going to do.  I find it hard to believe that Huawei has enough domestic chip production to allow Mate 60 sales at scale.  Maybe Huawei will get their at some point but it seems too early at this point despite all the hype of their boosters.

We know Apple products always sell better than other items during periods of economic downturn since Apple consumers always seem to be a bit more insulated from bread and butter economics.

We will see on Feb 1st who is more correct here.