Wesley Hilliard
JP Morgan reports underwhelming PC and Mac shipments in the third quarter of 2024, but demand for so-called AI PCs like Apple's upcoming M4 Macs could drive a recovery in 2025.
Apple's Mac lineup hasn't changed much in 2024 beyond the M3 MacBook Air update in March. That's led to a slowdown in demand, but not a steep one for Macs quarter over quarter.
According to data shared in a JP Morgan report seen by AppleInsider, the overall PC market saw declines in shipments that fell below seasonal trends. Shipments in quarter three of 2024 declined year over year by 2%, and shipments expanded by 6% quarter over quarter — the quarterly gain is normally around 11%.
Demand is reportedly concentrated on low-end models during the return-to-school season and weakened economy, but the forward outlook is positive due to expected demand for computers with artificial intelligence features. Modest growth is expected into 2025 with a mid-single-digit increase year over year.
Apple is expected to release updated M4-based Macs like updated MacBook Prosand a rumored miniaturized Mac mini. All M-series Macs are being promoted as built for AI and will compete with the PC market's Copilot+ computers.
The report expects AI PC adoption could drive demand into 2026. AI PCs are expected to be "ubiquitous" by 2030.
PC market by shipments. Image source: JP MorganThe effects of the slowing PC market impacted Apple's share a bit, bringing it down from 8.8% to 7.8% on a quarterly basis. The annual decline for Apple's market share is 2.2%.
Rumors suggest Apple will reveal the M4 Mac lineup in late October with initial shipments in early November. New Macs before the holiday season could help drive demand and increase Apple's market share into 2025.
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2 Comments
The fact that it's likely Macs will have 16GB as a base model will fuel higher demand.
I think more people are using laptops while desktops are fading away. Apple has a rather small market share, and I'm guessing it's due to the higher prices of Apple products. Unfortunately, I think Apple will only manage to hold on to its current market share with no growth, at all. Other companies will gladly flood the market with cheaper computers.