Neil Hughes
Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities continues to have a bearish outlook on iPhone sales through the end of 2016, telling investors on Sunday that he believes Apple will be the only top-five smartphone vendor to see shipments decline this year.
Though he didn't get into specifics about the "iPhone 7," Kuo said he doesn't believe it will have "many attractive selling points." As a result, he has a pessimistic outlook on iPhone sales, continuing to predict shipments will fall somewhere between 190 million and 205 million units.
The lone bright spot from Kuo was estimates for the iPhone SE — he has revised his projected shipments up from 12 million to 18 million units.
Still, he doesn't think a stronger-than-expected performance for the iPhone SE will be enough to offset declines, particularly for the iPhone 6s. Apple is set to report its second-quarter earnings this Tuesday, and has already warned investors that it expects to see the first-ever year-over-year decline in iPhone sales.
Kuo had already indicated earlier this month that he believes iPhone sales are likely to fall below 200 million for 2016. To put the forecast in perspective, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2015, and most on Wall Street expect Apple to ship between 210 million and 230 million iPhones this year.
Kuo's projections call for Samsung to grow sales 1 percent, retaining its spot as the largest smartphone vendor in the world. He believes Apple will retain second place despite having sales projected to drop between 11.6 and 18.1 percent.
In third, he believes Huawei will grow sales 15.1 percent to 122 million units. Fourth is OPPO with projected growth of 51.1 percent to 74 million units, while Vivo is forecast to take fifth on 45.5 percent growth and 64 million units.
To stimulate growth, Kuo believes the iPhone "needs a makeover" to attract consumers. It's expected that the "iPhone 7" will sport a new chassis when it debuts later this year, but the analyst apparently does not believe that will be enough.
Instead, he believes Apple is on track to release a major redesign in 2017 with a glass back and OLED display. Since most smartphones on the market feature aluminum backs, he believes switching back to glass — as Apple did with the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s — will allow the company to stand out from competitors.
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153 Comments
My only comment here is that if Apple does deliver on the rumor of the iPhone 7 having minimal cosmetic changes over the 6s, and at most significance offers only a processor and camera upgrade, then removing the 3.5mm jack is going to be detrimental to bottom line sales. If that's actually going to happen, they should save it for the "must have" redesigned iPhone 8 update.
Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course.
he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed.
even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
I wish there was a law (and enforcement) that protected companies from analysts making comments without any basis in fact, which absolutely will affect the stock market price not just on a daily basis but long term. These analysts have nothing to lose and are never called on any wrong comments by the SEC or any government agency anywhere in the world. People are sued for slander and libel all the time but I've never heard analysts being sued for anything. Unless Kuo has paid informants in every supplier Apple uses, he has no way of knowing what Apple will or won't do. He's only guessing but his guesses are used to swing stock markets prices and are making huge impacts on a company's livelihood. I know nothing will ever be done but this has to stop.
Every year.....