"Steve Jobs remains CEO of Apple, however, yielding this year's Macworld keynote to Phil Schiller, along with the participation of Tim Cook and Phil Schiller at the October event is, in our view, a clear message that a leadership shift is underway," he said.
In addition, Jobs' decision not to deliver his high-profile speech has rekindled speculation on the part of some industry watchers and investors that his health may be deteriorating — a scare which has sent Apple shares into a mini spiral, shedding more than 7 percent of their value since the news became public.
The Apple co-founder is a cancer surviver, having undergone successful surgery in 2004 to remove a malignant tumor from his pancreas. His company, however, remained secretive about the matter until the operation was complete and he was forced to take a leave from his daily duties as chief executive.
While Munster believes that Apple could have easily diffused speculation over its leader's health by having him keynote next month's expo, he doesn't believe the move is necessarily a sign Jobs' condition has taken a turn for the worse. However, "we do believe that it is a sign that we are in the early stages of changing roles in Apple's management structure," he told clients.
Like many Apple watchers, the analyst acknowledged that Jobs is the "irreplaceable face of Apple." That said, he argues that the company's product innovation has come from an entire organization of dedicated people spearheaded by an executive team "who share a collective track record of consistently outpacing their competitors in terms of hardware and software innovation coupled with robust product marketing and financial discipline."
"We believe that Apple's executive team is one of its competitive advantages," he added. "This management team, along with Steve Jobs, has been responsible for Apple's product innovation."
With Phil Schiller delivering this year's Macworld keynote, Munster and his team are no longer expecting the event to reveal any revolutionary products. Some remaining possibilities may include an updated iMac or redesigned Mac mini, he said.
"We continue to expect a new form factor iPhone in the March quarter," the analyst told clients. "We initially thought there was an outside chance that a new iPhone could be announced at Macworld, the news regarding the keynote leads us to believe that a new iPhone at Macworld is less likely.
49 Comments
These analysts don't have a clue. You know, the one upside to these idiots, for people who understand Apple, is that they give us great AAPL buying opportunities. I'm getting rich off of these morons.
There sure is a leadership change happening, but it will extend over a long period of time. Phasing out MacWorld and moving Apple's marketing into the Apple Store makes a lot of sense. It's just the fist step of many to come. Apple can simply announce a media event, host it themselves, and still get great news coverage.
Apple can de-emphasize Jobs' role by having others do the smaller announcements, product refreshes, and demos while reserving the new product category announcements for himself, which happen infrequently. Thus over time, Jobs showing up or not becomes a non-issue because no one will expect him too, unless Apple has a huge new product announcement to make; the added benefit of that is it gives Apple more secretive control - no will know when to expect such an announcement. And when he finally does leave or becomes a behind the scenes advisor, it will have little affect on the stock.
Jesus F#$%ing Christ!
Why do people listen to ANALysts?
Jesus F#$%ing Christ!
Why do people listen to ANALysts?
Because analysts are not bunch of fanboys who'd say something because of their subjective opinion. What do you expect people to listen to? The enthusiast Mac evangelists on mac forums?
Jobs doesn't need the ego boost any more. Better for everyone if the individual is de-emphasized and the team is brought to the fore. The same products will come out, but the company will be more mature.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, one of the most outspoken and trusted experts on all things Apple...
Outspoken? Yes. Trusted? Yeah, right.
I'm not saying that Gene Munster is necessarily wrong. I actually wouldn't know what to disagree with: I generally stop reading once I see his name.