Katie MarsalAnalyst Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros. claims to have sources aware of Apple's leanings and gives China Unicom the nod as Apple favors the finances, hardware compatibility and degree of control it would get through an agreement. It's reportedly more willing to heavily subsidize the iPhone to its creator's satisfaction and to let Apple have its usual say over the device and its software, both of which are doubtful through China Mobile. Rumors have long swirled that China Mobile is insisting on controlling the local App Store, a practice that Apple hasn't allowed once in the history of its cellphones.
The smaller of the two Chinese carriers has 'just' 133 million carriers compared to China Mobile's 488 million but is in the middle of deploying a 3G cellular network that uses UMTS and WCDMA, both standards that are already supported by the iPhone 3G and 3GS. Choosing China Unicom would let Apple keep selling the same iPhone in China as it does elsewhere while also getting more reach: the faster network should reach 284 cities within several months.
In comparison, China Mobile's government-supported TD-SCDMA standard for 3G would require that Apple incorporate a custom chipset just for the one carrier and would come with growth limitations of its own. Despite having over three times as many customers, the larger carrier will reach nearly 50 fewer cities with its 3G and doesn't anticipate the network reaching complete coverage until three years from now, or well after China Unicom's network is ready.
Wu's same anonymous contacts, however, maintain that Apple doesn't entirely consider China Mobile "out of the running" both through its sheer influence and its interest in the iPhone, which would be a victory even in a country well-known for grey market imports.
No matter who's taking the lead, the researcher doesn't see a deal with either carrier as close enough to force a change in predicted iPhone numbers for now and the year ahead. About 20 million iPhones should ship in 2009 and 26 million in 2010. All the same, he notes that Chinese shouldn't necessarily be disappointed without an official deal thanks to the nation's thriving bootleg community.
"Our sources indicate that iPhones will likely continue to flow into China," Wu says. "There are an estimated 1 million-1.5 million iPhones in use despite lack of an official carrier relationship."
Andrew Orr
Amber Neely
William Gallagher
Christine McKee
AppleInsider Staff
15 Comments
Apple should just give the deal to both companies and stop this dancing around. Competitors are moving fast and faster into China, and Apple no matter how unique need to sprint into action very soon.
Apple should just give the deal to both companies and stop this dancing around. Competitors are moving fast and faster into China, and Apple no matter how unique need to sprint into action very soon.
The numbers alone are impressive that you?d think that Apple would make any HW configuration and give them any control that they wanted over the app store they asked for to make it happen. The fact that they are even in talks for so long probably means that the US will not likely see a 2nd carrier for the iPhone for awhile. They simply don?t seem interested in that business model.
The numbers alone are impressive that you?d think that Apple would make any HW configuration and give them any control that they wanted over the app store they asked for to make it happen. The fact that they are even in talks for so long probably means that the US will not likely see a 2nd carrier for the iPhone for awhile. They simply don?t seem interested in that business model.
I think the Chinese business model is a little...slanted, don't you.
With C Unicom their 133m could/would double overnight in my opinion putting them on equal footing with C Mobile and Apples iPhone stays the same as it is sold elsewhere. 20m in 2009 and 26m in 2010 seems miniscule to me if deal is made now.
I'm remembering someone predicting that China would become the leading democratic nation of the free world in the 21st Century. Could Apple's iPhone be a catalyst? I for one, hope so.
Good grief! Not another year going by without an official presence of iPhones in China. RIM is going to walk right over to China Mobile and say, "Whatever you guys want, we'll do it. We'll build any BlackBerry handset the way you want it and let you control the 2,000 or so apps we have on hand." And that will be it. RIM will have a head start in China with the biggest carrier and Apple will be still haggling over deferred revenue percentages with the number two carrier. I'm not saying Apple is wrong in doing what it normally does, I'm only saying it will delay Apple from getting first shot in China and will fall behind right away as far as market share goes. It seems with China, the foreign company willing to make the most concessions will win the war. I'm just concerned RIM is going to snatch China right from Apple's hands.
This is only conjecture on my part since probably only a few people know for sure what deal has been done between Apple and China Unicom. I really had thought it was a done deal, but maybe Wu is right.