Neil Hughes
In a new research note to investors, Brian Marshall with Broadpoint.AmTech looked at the historical trends of new Windows launches and the impact on Mac sales. He found that, if anything, Microsoft's debuts were a benefit to Apple.
"We have concluded that no negative correlation exists on AAPL's hardware sales when Microsoft launches a new OS," Marshall said. "Ironically, we believe new OS launches from MSFT may have acted as a 'delayed accelerant' to AAPL's computing sales. However, we believe AAPL's success (or failure) in the computing market is largely idiosyncratic (or company-specific) in nature and not dependent on others in the industry."
First reported by Fortune Brainstorm Tech, the findings show how Mac sales figures have consistently grown every time a new Windows operating system launched over the last 10 years. Mac sales spiked following the debut of Windows 98, Windows 200, Windows XP and Windows Vista.
Marshall said he believes that Apple could double its share of the worldwide computing market over the next five years. That would take the Mac from its current share of roughly 4 percent to 8 percent by the end of 2014.
Apple launched its own operating system in late August, and Snow Leopard got off to a very strong start. Sales of Mac OS X 10.6 have been twice as strong as its predecessor, Leopard, and four times better than Tiger.
Apple is due to report its September quarter results on Monday, Oct. 19. Marshall expects strong earnings from Apple, with 2.8 million Macs, 7 million iPhones and 10 million iPods sold during the frame. If true, those numbers would be in-line with other projections.
"In our view, Apple is 'THE' undisputed growth name in tech with numerous catalysts on the horizon (e.g. China iPhone ramp, netbook/tablet launch, etc.) and no business model issues," he said. "In addition, AAPL is currently benefiting from a positive mix shift (to higher margin iPhones/iPod touches)."
Broadpoint.AmTech has reiterated its buy rating and has a price target of $210 for AAPL stock.
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Malcolm Owen
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229 Comments
I guess the article's premise is true, but it is also true that Mac sales, in that same time period, have grown as I age, as IBM advertises, as Google grows...
Hopefully Apple and Macs keep on growing, and I keep on aging.
Leading up to XP there was the TiBook and Cube, which I'd actually presume is why those numbers increased in that period. The spike from Win2K might more be backlash against Me. Vista obviously needs no explanation. With how close some of the UI features of Win7 are to OS X now, I think people will find it easier/better to jump over if Apple can break the $999 barrier with an iBook/iMac.
Double in 5 years? Haven't we've heard that for like the last 10 years ? Must be a true fanbot.
Considering it is pain in the ass to switch from XP to Win7 I can see why Mac sales would rise.
what a stupid hypothesis is this article. But I know, these analists have to do something to show they've done their job.
It's possible that when one company advertises its products, it can animate the competitors' consumers, as well. But the result always depends on the strategy and the productline of each company.
So this article for me was just blablabla, with no sense. Sorry.