AppleInsider Staff
A market forecast from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple will see a marked increase in shipments for the just-released iPad mini with Retina display over the coming months at the expense of iPad Air marketshare, while the iPad 2 may be discontinued in the first quarter of 2014
Apple's newly redesigned iPad Air and "higher-than-expected" iPad mini sales will drive overall iPad shipments to 23.1 million units for the fourth quarter of 2013, Kuo said in a research note obtained by AppleInsider.
Apple will see a 102 percent quarter-over-quarter boost in iPad with Retina display shipments in the first quarter of 2014, bringing the total up to 4.5 million units. This is based on low supplies of the tablet at launch and seasonal demand.
While the analyst is upping sequential growth estimates for overall iPad shipments to 64 percent quarter-over-quarter to accommodate seasonality, specifically for holiday shoppers, he sees that number slipping 42 percent at the start of 2014. According to Kuo, shipments will dip to 13.3 million units due to seasonality and slower sales of the iPad Air.
Shipments of the larger iPad will fall from 10.5 million units in quarter four to 6 million units next quarter, down 43 percent. Accounting for the change is cannibalization from the Retina iPad mini and what Kuo calls "structural challenges" to the tablet sector.
"We think current tablet products can, generally, sufficiently meet entertainment needs. As they are very cheap already, lowering prices won't effectively stimulate demand," Kuo writes. "Only new applications, which will bring about new growth momentum, will be able to solve the structural problems the sector faces."
As for the non-Retina iPad mini and iPad 2, Kuo forecasts the tablets to ship 8.5 million and 1.7 million units in the December quarter, respectively. As with the iPad Air, sequential shipment growth will fall a respective 72 percent and 82 percent to a respective 2.4 million units and 0.3 million units.
Finally, given the iPad 2's price and positioning in Apple's lineup, Kuo believes the tablet may reach end of life in the first quarter of next year.
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20 Comments
This guy is on crack if he thinks Apple is going to sell 13 million units in calendar Q1 2014. Apple did 19 million the same quarter last year. It would be a 30% decline year over year (Yes, I already know last year Q1 included the China rollout and this year it was moved up to this quarter)
I'd say the iPad 2 reached "end of life" the moment Tim announced the price in October. Why would you pay 399 when you can have a Retina Mini for the same price, or a brand new state of the art Air for a hundred more? Weird move keeping the thing around.
He has Q1 confused with Q2
Also, he's projecting 0% year over year unit growth for this calendar Q4. Apple also sold 23 million last holiday quarter "Structural problems the sector faces". As if Apple is just one of many competing in the vast sea of tablets Let's come back his numbers after the results are reported
Something isn't quite right about the iPad. 3 years, coming on 4 years later, and it's still the 3rd device between a PC and a smartphone. Apple's lack of vision for this product is a little disconcerting. I love mine, but Apple needs to figure out both how to market it and define exactly what the next step is for it. iPad definitely has not grown the way many have expected over the last year.