Neil Hughes
Demand for Apple's iPhone has been higher than expected in the first quarter of calendar 2014, thanks in part to new smartphone promotions by U.S. wireless carriers, new tracking data reveals.
The results of the latest AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker survey from Morgan Stanley were shared with AppleInsider on Wednesday, revealing sell-through data via Web search analysis through March 15. The figures suggest that iPhone shipments for the March quarter thus far are tracking ahead of market consensus expectations.
The AlphaWise survey, detailed by analyst Katy Huberty, suggests that demand for Apple's iPhone will be at 42 million units for the quarter. That's considerably ahead of market consensus, which expects the company to sell 38 million iPhones over the three-month span.
As for why iPhone sales may be stronger than expected, Huberty theorized that new U.S. carrier promotions initiated in the first quarter of calendar 2014 could be driving incremental demand. That may be an increase from late 2013, when carriers were strictly enforcing 24-month contract terms during the holiday shopping season.
Huberty counted a total of nine major promotions announced by the "big four" U.S. carriers thus far in 2014, including changes to AT&T Next and Verizon Edge, Sprint's new "Framily" plan, and a new T-Mobile "Uncarrier" offer that pays termination fees.
In addition, Huberty noted that several large U.S. retailers ran iPhone promotions this quarter, including Walmart and Best Buy.
While the survey shows that demand for Apple's iPhone is high, production may not be keeping up with that demand. Morgan Stanley's supply chain analyst Jasmine Lu expects Apple to build between 38 million and 39 million iPhones in the first quarter of calendar 2014.
But Huberty noted that the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker data was a strong indicator of Apple iPhone shipments throughout 2013. The tracker posted results closer to Apple's actual quarterly iPhone sales than Wall Street consensus in three out of four quarters.
The latest data also suggests that Apple saw an improvement in all major regions except China, where the iPhone saw an earlier launch than in previous years, making the 2014 comparison more challenging. However, Huberty expects that the debut of the iPhone on China Mobile, the world's largest wireless provider, may slightly offset those difficult comparisons.
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17 Comments
Stock will surely go down on this news.
Demand for Apple's iPhone has been higher than expected in the first quarter of calendar 2014, thanks in part to new smartphone promotions by U.S. wireless carriers, new tracking data reveals.
Virtually every carrier promotion & advertising campaign I see in Canada features everything but Apple products. Plans are available at great prices to all but iPhones. If you want an iPhone you have to select an upper tier plan. I'd love to see someone challenging the legality of offering a less expensive plan to users of certain devices.
Sadly, China Mobile is as big of a question mark as it ever was.
demand has nothing to do with the iPhone itself%u2026it must be related to carrier advertising. Funny thing is, the only advertising I see is that which gives away Samsung Galaxies%u2026go figure. Now that the analysts see an uptick in shipments outpacing their original estimates, guaranteed they'll raise their targets to astronomical levels which Apple can't meet and claim it as a disappointment. They play their cards so well that most people buy into the shell game. Just too bad the SEC didn't prosecute more of these guys for stock manipulation.
Apple are chipping away at the android marketshare in the US. New plans are helping that as the carrier start a data plan war. The new AT&T deal encouraged us to get new phones. Also the fact that the wife tried to drown her old iP4 was another factor. In the emerging markets iPhones will be the phone of choice for those who can afford it. And note there are usually plenty of wealthy people in those locations who are used to getting the best. So increasing number of carriers and locations plus established markets choosing iPhones over Android will cause a good increase in sales. Note that android phones cover all types of capabilities and is essentially becoming the new Symbian. Apple doesn't need or want that business because the margins are too low. What they will do is bring in more mid price options that put a downward pressure on the competitors.