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iPhone 13 delivery estimates shorten slightly amid supply constraints

Credit: Apple

Lead times for Apple's iPhone 13 lineup are starting to shrink, although JP Morgan notes they remain elevated in the fourth week of their availability.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan lead analyst Samik Chatterjee says that lead times for Apple's iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro devices are still higher compared to the previous year's iPhone 12 models. Lead times are the number of days it takes for an iPhone customer to get their order delivered.

Additionally, Chatterjee notes that in week three of the iPhone 12's availability, lead times moderated slightly. That occurred a week later for the iPhone 13.

"Coming back to lead times for iPhone 13 series, we have seen a slight moderation in the lead times across all the models for the first time, with a greater reduction on the low-end models (2-3 days) and a lesser reduction on the high-end models (1 day)," Chatterjee writes.

JP Morgan analyzed iPhone lead times in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and China for its analysis.

Delivery estimates stood at 14 days for the iPhone 13 mini, 20 days for the iPhone 13, 35 days for the iPhone 13 Pro, and 35 days for the iPhone 13 Pro Max. That's slightly lower across the board from week three of availability, with all models moderating by one day.

In the U.S., which accounts for about 35% of all iPhone shipments, lead times clocked in at 14, 20, 34, and 34 days for the iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro, and iPhone 13 Pro Max, respectively.

Chinese consumers saw lead times contracting more rapidly for the low-end models, with delivery timing for the iPhone 13 mini and iPhone 13 moderating to 14 and 19 days. Lead times for the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max remained high at 40 days.

Lead times in the U.K. and Germany looked similar, with delivery estimates in both countries dropping by a single day.

Chatterjee points out that lead times for the iPhone 13 models are an imperfect indicator of demand because of ongoing supply constraints affecting the global supply chain, and the semiconductor and component industries in particular.

Chatterjee maintains his Apple price target of $180, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 28x on JP Morgan's 2023 earnings estimate of $6.55.