Apple still selling more iPhone 13 models than past lineups via carrier channels

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee writes that incremental datapoints support the investment bank's positive outlook for iPhone 13 demand in 2022. In fact, Chatterjee predicts record 2022 volumes on the iPhone 13 cycle, which has eclipsed the iPhone 12.

Overall momentum has slowed a bit following the Samsung Galaxy S22 launch and improving executive by Android manufacturers amid supply constraints.

Shares of Apple's iPhone moderated to below 70% at Verizon and T-Mobile stores, with the majority indicating that Galaxy S22 demand was stronger relative in 2021. Supply of the Android model has also largely kept up with demand.

"That said, Apple's share remains above historical levels compared to typical seasonal share and Wave7 Research believes the data supports a structurally higher market share vs. past share," Chatterjee writes.

Although iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro stock at retailers remain mixed, online availability has stabilized for the lineup. Carriers representatives highlighted improving supply of the Pro models, which had more extended lead times early on in the launch cycle.

Additionally, JP Morgan says that sales of older iPhone models at carrier stores remains low — the investment bank is tracking older iPhone sales at roughly 3% to 4% of all Apple handsets sold. Many models older than the iPhone 12 are becoming "increasingly difficult to find."

"With the recent launch of the iPhone SE 3, we expect older models to continue their decline in popularity, as the 5G-enabled SE 3 now presents an affordable 5G phone for the installed base of older phones," Chatterjee writes.

Chatterjee maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $210, which is based on a profit-to-earnings multiple of 30x and a calendar year earnings estimate of $6.90.