China iPhone shipments up 227% year-over-year in June 2022

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Apple iPhone shipments in China are up more than 200% year-over-year, according to UBS estimates that hint at solid June quarter results for the company.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, UBS analyst David Vogt offers a few thoughts on iPhone shipments in the June quarter, as well as shipments in 2022 to date.

For one, Apple's shipments in China appear to have rebounded strongly from May, during which shipments declined 9% year-over-year. In the June quarter, for example, shipments improved and are now up about 227%, though Vogt notes that this is an easy compare.

In the quarter to date, iPhone shipments are up 25% year-over-year despite macroeconomic headwinds like Covid disruptions in China and broader supply chain issues.

Overall smartphone shipments are down in China about 12% year-over-year, largely because of Covid lockdowns in April and May.

Because of the bump in Apple smartphone shipments, Vogt now estimates that the iPhone accounts for a larger 11.4% share of the total market in China. Local brands in China are now ceding material share to Apple in the June quarter.

The analyst is leaving his 42 million June quarter iPhone unit estimate unchanged, but notes that it's likely a conservative number that already accounts for expected weakness in the quarter.

"Given the strength in China and and our checks, we believe our 42 million June quarter iPhone estimate (down 9% YoY) is likely conservative and already captures the earlier Covid disruptions suggesting upside is likely ahead of earnings next week," he writes.

Vogt maintains his 12-month Apple price target of $185, which he arrives at through a sum-of-the-parts framework. It accounts for an Apple "Core" value of $171, plus what he calls an evenly-weighted probability value of Apple's future automotive plans at $14 a share.