Apple's next iPad mini expected before mid-2024, won't fold

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is throwing cold water on the rumors that a folding iPad will replace the iPad mini and believes that Apple has a new one in the works.

In a series of Tweets on Tuesday morning, Kuo briefly discussed what he sees as the future of the foldable iPad. He cites cost being a barrier to the release of the product.

Specifically, the price difference between the iPad mini and a foldable device is the issue.

In the same Tweet series, he notes that Apple is working on a new iPad mini with a better processor being the main selling point. Shipments may begin as early as the 2023 holiday season but may slip into early 2024.

The existing iPad mini launched on September 24, 2021. It has the A15 Bionic, 4GB of RAM, and 64GB or 256GB of storage. It retails for $499.

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I think it's unlikely Apple will replace the iPad mini with a foldable iPad in 2025, which may be contrary to what some media previously predicted. It's because a foldable iPad will have a markedly higher price than an iPad mini, so such a replacement is not reasonable.
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) December 27, 2022

Kuo, in part, is responding to analyst reports about a foldable iPad.

"Right now it doesn't make sense for Apple to make a foldable iPhone," said CCS Insight chief of research Ben Wood in October. "We think they will shun that trend and probably dip a toe in the water with a foldable iPad."

Wood also believed Apple would ship a folding iPad before a foldable iPhone. He said a folding iPhone "will be a super high risk for Apple." Part of this could be Apple pricing it to be "incredibly expensive" to avoid cannibalizing existing iPhone sales.

Despite the risks, Wood says Apple has "no option but to react because the trend toward foldables is gathering momentum." Going for a foldable iPad would be an educational release for Apple since it would be able to learn how best to implement and scale the technology.

Current timelines point to a foldable iPhone releasing in 2023, with 2024 being the most likely.

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9 Comments

MacPro

said about 1 year ago

I can see a possible use for at least an option of an iPhone model that folds, but frankly I don't see an iPad being foldable as a particularly useful feature. Given Apple's tendency to think outside the box, we will more likely have an iPad that rolls up, LOL. Wait, that might be pretty cool!.

DAalseth

said about 1 year ago

MacPro said:

I can see a possible use for at least an option of an iPhone model that folds, but frankly I don't see an iPad being foldable as a particularly useful feature. Given Apple's tendency to think outside the box, we will more likely have an iPad that rolls up, LOL. Wait, that might be pretty cool!.

I’ve thought a rolling iPad made more sense for a long time. No single point of high stress. No line that is more prone to failure. The issue is of course the battery. But I suppose a series of cells with hinge lines between them might do it.

The Mini is the most likely place to include folding/rolling technology. The full sized iPads and iPad Pro’s need a flat screen without a ripple in the middle. Big phones are a possibility, but they tend to get overly thick. But an iPad Mini that folded/rolled might be a good target.

Madbum

said about 1 year ago

Why does it need to “fold”? Those folding phone has terrible durability issues not to mention you can see the fold in the middle of screen!

lkrupp

said about 1 year ago

Madbum said:

Why does it need to “fold”? Those folding phone has terrible durability issues not to mention you can see the fold in the middle of screen!

Oh, but it’s the next big thing. Didn’t you get the memo? iPads and iPhones have become boring and no one is buying them anymore. Apple is falling behind. Tech blogs have stated so.

avon b7

said about 1 year ago

lkrupp said:

Madbum said:

Why does it need to “fold”? Those folding phone has terrible durability issues not to mention you can see the fold in the middle of screen!

Oh, but it’s the next big thing. Didn’t you get the memo? iPads and iPhones have become boring and no one is buying them anymore. Apple is falling behind. Tech blogs have stated so.

FTA:

"Despite the risks, Wood says Apple has "no option but to react because the trend toward foldables is gathering momentum."

That momentum is basically due to prices coming down and hardware improvements.

Folding phones bring changes in usage. That should be obvious because of the hinge assembly.

Not one folding phone has been plagued by durability issues, though.

Do you remember when the iPhone went 'all glass'?

People became even more aware of the perils of drops and took more care in handling and protecting their phones and even with the technological advances in materials over the years, broken fronts and backs are still common. Are those models plagued by durability issues?

If you are considering a folding phone you absolutely know there will some tradeoffs with regards to non-folding phones. Just like when phones moved from metal/plastic backs to glass. But a tradeoff does not mean everything is negative. You are supposed to see plus points and there are.

A while ago my brother's entire family moved to Galaxy Flips. Another brother has bought a Fold 4. No problems so far and they adore their phones.

Are folding phones just trends that will die off like curved TVs and 3D?

It definitely does not look like it. Quite the opposite right now as more and more brands release new folding phones and almost all of them raising the bar over previous models.

As prices come down you can expect demand to increase and that is something that will put pressure on Apple.

Was the butterfly keyboard plagued by issues? There's a thought. Some will outright say no. Only Apple has the numbers. Was there a design problem with it? IMO a definite yes. The upshot was that Apple moved away from that design.

Is the industry moving away from folding designs? Definitely not and not because of design issues. Perhaps scrollables will win out at some point but that isn't reality yet.