Apple 5G modem rumored to arrive in 2025

In a note surrounding other 5G modem manufacturers, Ming-Chi Kuo has confirmed his belief that an Apple-produced 5G modem will arrive at some point in 2025.

The rumors about an Apple modem are more solid that rumors that surround Apple typically are. However, what's always been in flux is when it will arrive, and in what product.

On Wednesday, Kuo said that risks for Qualcomm include the Exynos 2400 chip — and Apple using its own chip starting in 2025.

This is not the first time Kuo has chimed in on Apple's 5G efforts.

Kuo has claimed that an iPhone SE 4-style model with Apple's in-house 5G chip is being made as a prototype. If tests prove successful, that will mean that Apple's own 5G modem works at scale, and so it could be used in an iPhone released in either 2025 or 2026.

"I believe that the mass production schedule for Apple in-house 5G baseband chip will largely hinge on the test results of this engineering prototype," he wrote in April. "Consequently, mass production could commence as early as 2025."

"But if testing falls below expectations, the schedule may be pushed back to 2026 or later," says Kuo.

So whether it's called the iPhone SE 4 or not, or even if it hits the market, there will likely be some model iPhone with the company's own 5G modem by 2025 or 2026.

29 Comments

tmay 11 Years · 6456 comments

About 1 year ago

Apple's own modem would be massive for the Mac Book Pro, which will surely happen in the near future.

wood1208 10 Years · 2938 comments

No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.

avon b7 20 Years · 8046 comments

wood1208 said:

No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.

Qualcomm will know.

In a recent earnings call they stated that there would be no further material revenues from Huawei. Last week Huawei released its own 5G capable phone.

Expect the same to happen when it comes to losing Apple’s modem revenues.

mpantone 18 Years · 2254 comments

wood1208 said:
No one except Apple knows when Apple will introduce it's own home grown 5G in products.
avon b7 is correct.

And by extension, some chip foundry will know since Apple does not manufacture their own ASICs. When/if Apple kicks Qualcomm to the curb, some foundry is going to get a purchase order for tens of millions of 5G modem chips. Most likely that foundry will have been working together with Apple for years, providing assistance with tape-outs, engineering samples, etc.

Apple: "Here's our purchase order."
Qualcomm: "Hmmm, I see you only ordered small quantities of the previous generation modem chips. Would you like any of the new modem chips? They're really great."
Apple: "No, not today."
Qualcomm: "Oh, I see. Okay. Um, thank you for your purchase order."

Apple doesn't just wake up one morning and say, "Let's make a 5G modem chip today." They have been working on this for years probably before they acquired the cellular modem business cast off by Intel. Apple's prototype chips have been side by side with their supplier chips in their labs.

In the same way, Apple probably started working on Apple Silicon M-series chips in earnest since the A8 SoC's debut (first 64-bit SoC widely deployed in a consumer mobile device).

If Apple does go with their own in-house 5G modem with the iPhone 17 lineup (fall 2025), Qualcomm would probably know in spring 2025. Or Apple could choose to debut with another product like an iPad Pro earlier in the year. Either way, Qualcomm will know when an anticipated purchase order fails to appear.