Both the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will have the same tetraprism lens as the iPhone 15 Pro Max, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts, with no changes in specification expected.
The iPhone 15 Pro Max is the only 2023 model with a tetraprism lens arrangement, enabling an increase in telephoto optical zoom from 3x to 5x. According to TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, both Pro models will get it for the iPhone 16 generation.
In a Medium note posted late on Sunday, Kuo discussed the supply chain for the iPhone 15 Pro Max's camera system, including price increases due to Apple raising the validation requirements for the telephoto lens and higher demand.
For the iPhone 16 Pro Max, demand "exceeds expectations" because of the lens arrangement. With the combination of improved specifications and demand, cost for the component will be up by about 30%, to between $6 and $6.50 per unit.
The Pro model will also gain the lens, "likely maintaining the current high specifications to ensure camera performance and production yields," writes Kuo. The analyst predicts that shipments of iPhones using the tetraprism camera will grow by approximately 110% in 2024, equating to between 70 million and 80 million units.
The high demand should mean that current lens supplier Largan, as well as Crystal-Optech and Lante Optics, will be the main beneficiaries of Apple's tetraprism promotion in 2024.
Both Crystal-Optech and Lante Optics are anticipated to expand production capacities for prisms by at least 50% in 2024. Crystal-Optech supposedly struggled to keep up in 2023 due to demand, leading Lante to snag some extra orders.
5 Comments
Even after a lifetime of of photography as a prosumer hobby to the point of having a home color darkroom, I'm finding it hard to understand what's going on with lenses in Apple's latest Pro cameras. I assumed, for example, that the new Pro Max tetraprism lens was handling the optical zoom range not available in the regular Pro: 3.1x to 5x. Nope! A professional camera review of the lens that I read this weekend noted that the new lens only does 5x. Everything from 3.1x to 4.9x is handled on the main camera sensor. Which means what, exactly? A crop? Apple isn't helping things by claiming that its three lens set-up is actually seven lenses. A true zoom lens covers all of the focal lengths within its range optically and uses the full sensor size within the camera regardless of the focal length you're using. In theory, the 3 lenses in the new Pro Max set up can cover all focal lengths from 13mm to 120mm. But how much of that range is achieved through the use of true zoom optics and how much is achieved through cropping of the full image on the sensor? To go back to my earlier example: how is the main camera handling 3.1x to 4.9x if not by cropping, since the main camera does not have that optical range?
I seriously hope the 16 Pro Max won’t have the exact same cameras as the 15 PM. If it does I’ll wait to upgrade my 14 PM to the 17 model.
I think it's a little premature to know and expect details about the iPhone 16 since the 15 was released a few days ago. However, I can't deny that I am curious too.