William Gallagher
Ming-Chi Kuo says sales of the 15-inch MacBook Air will be 20% below expectations following a decline in demand after the Back to School season.
Following his recent predictions about the desktop iMac, analyst Kuo is reporting that overall MacBook shipments are in decline.
"Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year," he wrote in his blog. "MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023."
"There are no new products in 4Q23," he continued, "and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons."
"Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand," says Kuo, "and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple's silicon and mini-LED."
Despite that unqualified comment about Apple Silicon consumer appeal dropping, Kuo also reports that "Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024," but he's guarded about "whether this strategy will be effective."
Kuo says that Apple needs to "clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024."
He also notes that key MacBook components, and the assembly of them in production, is "significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers."
Kuo's comment about there being no new MacBook models in the remainder of 2023 does fit with recent reports that the next MacBook Pro and MacBook Air are due in 2024.
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14 Comments
I love my 15 inch air! The larger screen is great and the better heat dissipation leads to about 7 percent better performance under sustained full load
I think Apple should drop some model and rethink how to deploy the M chip interval.
Apple should delete old 13' Pro and only make 14' & 16' for Pro model.
Air should keep 13' & 15'. So don't give consumer to choice dilemma based on screen size.
Entire notebook line is 13', 14', 15' 16'.
The Pro model should have always newer M chip like iPhone Pro and none pro.
So Air always get previous M chip. The M2 chip currently good enough to skip upgrade. The Pro model get M3, M3 pro & max.
When M4 release, the Air should get M3.
In that way, Apple get little less chip shortage apply through entire mac line up and Apple can drop some price from Air model.
Every flower will bloom and then fade away. Wondering if this is Apple's future?
With nothing but a cheap $79 pencil for the 4th quarter and back to school done, there is not much to draw folks into the local Apple Store. The national numbers for over extended credit are not encouraging and the default percentage is increasing.
The Vision Pro at $3,500 will not be a huge seller so the M3 chipped devices need to arrive at the party early to keep Apple's hardware income stream healthy.
We still have about a month before I will feel comfortable saying this, but it’s really starting to look like iMac will skip M2. This goes against everything I understood about Apple silicon for macOS. To the point where I still don’t really believe it. It’s unbelievable. I just don’t get it.