15-inch MacBook Air demand drops significantly, says Kuo

Apple's 15-inch MacBook Air

Following his recent predictions about the desktop iMac, analyst Kuo is reporting that overall MacBook shipments are in decline.

"Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year," he wrote in his blog. "MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023."

"There are no new products in 4Q23," he continued, "and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons."

"Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand," says Kuo, "and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple's silicon and mini-LED."

Despite that unqualified comment about Apple Silicon consumer appeal dropping, Kuo also reports that "Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024," but he's guarded about "whether this strategy will be effective."

Kuo says that Apple needs to "clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024."

He also notes that key MacBook components, and the assembly of them in production, is "significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers."

Kuo's comment about there being no new MacBook models in the remainder of 2023 does fit with recent reports that the next MacBook Pro and MacBook Air are due in 2024.