China iPhone sales will recover, says JP Morgan

Analysts from investment firm JP Morgan reports believe that the decline in Apple's iPhone sales in China is accelerating, but Services could change that.

Using Counterpoint Research's data about the first six weeks of 2024, JP Morgan has told investors that decreasing iPhone sales in China are greater than for rivals. In the note, seen by AppleInsider, JP Morgan calls the pace of decline moderate, but also a reversal of fortunes for the company.

Prior to the latest figures showing the first six weeks of 2024, it appeared that the Chinese market's slow decline had been arrested. The latest figures suggest that it hasn't, but JP Morgan thinks that over the longer term, the market will recover.

In particular, the analysts expect Apple to see increased income from its Services offerings, ranging from Apple TV+ to iCloud. The investor note doesn't specify iPhone estimates for the rest of 2024, but it does say that even if it can't predict when China's smartphone sales will recover, JP Morgan expects that they will.

Consequently, JP Morgan is maintaining its price target of $215. JP Morgan updated the target last in February 2024, when it was cut from $225 over weak iPhone demand.

This compares to Wedbush, whose most recent investor note also expects a recovery from declining China iPhone sales. Its analysts expect that recovery to come from increased Services revenues, plus AI and pent-up upgrade demand for the iPhone 16 range.