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Cowen bullish on Apple's Q4 results, sees iPhone ASP growing to $606

Analysts are starting to chime in on what they are expecting to see in Apple's forthcoming earnings report, with the latest prediction increasing both revenue and earnings per share significantly over earlier estimates.




According to investment firm Cowen and Company, Apple's average phone selling price for its fourth quarter of the fiscal year will climb to $606 solely based on the strength of less than three weeks of iPhone 7 family sales. As a result, analyst Timothy Arcuri expects to see earnings per share come in at $1.69, versus $1.42 in the last quarter.

Arcuri believes that revenue will hit $47.8 billion, a bit higher than the aggregate Wall Street estimate, and in the middle of Apple's guidance for the quarter.

While Apple doesn't detail every category of sales or generally break them down by model, the latest estimates assume 46 million iPhones sold on the quarter, with 21 million of them from the iPhone 7 family. Watch sales are estimated to be at 3.5 million units, and iPad sales are assumed to be 9.5 million.

Arcuri sees an increased mix of the larger iPhone 7 Plus versus the smaller iPhone 7, versus previous large to small screen model comparisons. This year, the 7 Plus is said to be between 35 and 40 percent of the new phones sold, including the iPhone SE.

On both the strength of the quarter and the reception to the iPhone 7 family by the public, Cowen and Company is also increasing what it expects in earnings per share for the next quarter from $3.17 per share to $3.22 per share and a consequent increase in revenue to $75 billion.

Earlier in October, Apple moved its earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2016 up two days to Tuesday, Oct. 25, at the time citing an unannounced scheduling conflict.

The schedule conflict has turned out to be an Oct. 27 "hello again" release event, where the company is expected to refresh at least some of its Mac product line.