"We have analyzed NPD data for all 3 months of the September quarter (July, Aug & Sep) [and] it leads us to a Mac number of between 2.7 million and 2.8 million," Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster told clients in a report Monday afternoon.
The analyst said those figures suggest Mac sales grew anywhere from 25 percent to 29 percent during the quarter, inline to slightly ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates which have the Cupertino-based company selling approximately 2.7 million systems on 25 percent yearly growth.
Specifically, Munster said NPD's data suggest Mac sales grew 19 percent year-over-year in September, down from 23 percent in August, and about 43 percent in July.
"The months of August and September were tough year-over-year compares, as new iMacs were introduced in August 2007, but new Macs were not introduced until [October] in 2008," he explained. "Also, it appears that the weak consumer environment is negatively impacting Apple's business."
As far as iPods go, Munster said the three full months of NPD data suggests Apple sold approximately 11 million units on 7 percent growth, which is slightly above expectations on Wall Street. Given lingering concerns that the company's digital media player business may be showing signs of weakness, the segment's outperformance in relation to the Street should be seen as a slight positive, he said.
For the quarter, the analyst is modeling Apple to report revenue of $8.368 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.06 billion, or $1.17 per diluted share, driven by sales of 2.8 million Macs, 11 million iPods and 5 million iPhones. He expects gross margin to come in around 32 percent.
"Despite the expectation for an extended consumer slowdown hitting the consumer electronics space, we believe Apple is well-positioned to weather the storm," he told clients. "The company has recently leveraged its unit volumes in the iPod, Mac, and iPhone businesses to lower prices moderately while generally maintaining margins."
Munster maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.
As usual, AppleInsider will offer comprehensive coverage of Tuesday's Apple earnings report and conference call.
25 Comments
Munster maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.
I commend Gene Munster for having the courage to stand by his original call AND his convictions while so many other "so-called" experts cover their keesters!
I commend Gene Munster for having the courage to stand by his original call AND his convictions while so many other "so-called" experts cover their keesters!
Amen.
These idiots have no clue. Munster is an optimist, but he's realistic, and looks long-term, which is where my money has always been.
Amen.
These idiots have no clue. Munster is an optimist, but he's realistic, and looks long-term, which is where my money has always been.
I kind of agree - but he's been calling for $250/share for an eternity. I think he's realistic, but I'm surprised to see his estimate holding in this market. Will Apple be able to meet a $1.63 per share profit for the holiday quarter (isn't that the street's estimate)? That seems difficult to me in a holiday quarter that has our current issues. Maybe they'll pass this stupid stimulus package in time for holiday shopping and people will actually spend it on gifts - but that'll only buy one iPod.
I'm not sure what to think, but I do see Gene as an honest broker of information.
P
I commend Gene Munster for having the courage to stand by his original call AND his convictions while so many other "so-called" experts cover their keesters!
Or, he doesn't know well enough to make an adjustment.
Not that he's wrong, but there's certainly no harm or repercussions if he is.
How many of us could screw up royally at work and not get fired like these analysts?
he's he only one sticking to his price target. I don't think he wants to lower it since he wants to pump it up high. I think it is reasonable when the stock market turns around apple yes 250. for now no one wants to buy apple. but its only a matter of time before it hits 250.