Neil Hughes
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray on Friday joined the growing chorus of reports that have indicated Apple will launch its next-generation iPhone later than usual this year. He agrees with previous predictions that the fifth-generation handset will go on sale in September, and his financial models for AAPL stock reflect that timetable.
Munster noted that on average there are 79 days between Apple's iOS software event and the iPhone hardware announcement. There have also been an average of 99 days between the software event and the actual ship date of the new iPhone.
Under the assumption that Apple would introduce new iPhone software, likely iOS 5, at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, beginning June 6 in San Francisco, the historical averages point to an announcement of the fifth-generation iPhone on Aug. 24, and a shipping date of Sept. 13.
Munster believes that a September quarter launch is "normal" for new iPhone hardware, because the impact of iPhone launches is typically not seen until the September quarter. While the iPhone 3G was released in July, placing it in the September quarter, the original iPhone, iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 all came toward the end of the June quarter, placing a large number of "launch" sales actually in the following three-month frame.
Apple's chief interests with its anticipated fifth-generation iPhone are believed to be the iOS software that will run on it, and possibly a larger 4-inch display that serves as a "window into the software," Munster said.
He believes a 4-inch display will come to the iPhone by 2012 at the latest, but added that he sees a larger screen as "more likely a 2011 feature." Rumors of a larger screen on the next iPhone, including alleged engineering sketches and prototype hardware, have persisted for months.
As for support for 4G long-term evolution high-speed data connections, Munster sees that functionality as more likely to arrive with an anticipated sixth-generation iPhone in 2012. That would also align with the latest rumors of an LTE-capable iPhone.
As for the reasons for a later-than-usual iPhone launch, Munster said one reason may be that Apple has software-driven features planned for the next handset that are "not yet fully-baked."
He also said supply issues related to the Japan earthquake and tsunami could have had an impact. In addition, the decision whether to support LTE data or not could have delayed the development process.
Piper Jaffray has forecast sales of 16 million iPhones in the June quarter and 21 million iPhones in the September quarter. Munster said even a later-than-usual launch of the next iPhone would not place his numbers "at risk."
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16 Comments
I suppose that makes some sort of sense - iPhone 5 = world phone - single hardware for everyone - or just everyone outside the US?
I can wait till Q3 2012 for my iPhone 6 LTE.
A... As for the reasons for a later-than-usual iPhone launch, Munster said one reason may be that Apple has software-driven features planned for the next handset that are "not yet fully-baked."... He also said supply issues related to the Japan earthquake and tsunami could have had an impact. In addition, the decision whether to support LTE data or not could have delayed the development process. ...
Isn't it more likely that the reason for the delay is the same reason that everyone was quoting when speculating about the iPad 3 arriving in September?
iPods are rapidly shrinking in popularity and sales as a stand alone product. If they didn't move the iPhone (or something) to the September launch period they might end up with nothing to sell but an iPod touch. Having the iPhone and it's closest sibling for sale at opposite ends of the year makes no sense at all.
Thus, move the iPhone to the September event to be released at the same time as it's sister product.
Gene Munster is among the worst analysts out there, so don't take any of this seriously. The pundit choir bemoans the tight information control Aplenty has on supply chains and manufacturing and now this puffball opines...
Look at his last AAPL earnings forecast in comparison to bloggers: pathetic.
cheers
I don't think the decision to wait until September/October for the iPhone has anything to do with the iPod, and I'm not sure why some people are determined to chain these two devices together. Yes, they share alot of components and capabilities, but they are not companion devices. I can think of no good reason for someone to own both an iPod Touch and an iPhone.
However, if there is a small contingent of people who own both, then that's fine I suppose, but I do not believe for a second that Apple feels compelled to release these two products together. I think it is just coincidental for this year. Maybe there is a delay related to design changes and testing. Or maybe Apple is just in the early stages of changing the release cycle so that thay have a single phone for all carriers, and updated hardware can be released simultaneously for all. Since the Verizon model came out in February, the cycle is off balance, so I think they are in the process of rectifying this.
I think Apple will not release a new iPhone next month, simply because there's not much to release. The iPhone 4 hardware is still very up to date.
The 1GHz A4 with 512MB Ram is still very capable. The Retina display is up there with everything else in the market, the camera as well is still top-notch...
You could argue about the improved graphics of the A5, a bigger screen (4inch +?) or 4G.
But:
- the A5 might still be a bit too power hungry for the phone form factor, or they simply don't have enough production yield yet.
- bigger screen would be more of a "me too" feature imo. It's a phone. When the original iPhone released the first thing I thought was: "why is it so big? That won't fit into my pocket easily..." All those 4.3 inch Android bricks look extremely dorky imo, I don't think the average consumer really wants a bigger screen in a phone than the iPhone's. Besides, the average Apple notebook sold also has a smaller screen than your average Windows machine.
- 4G is a big mess right now, it's not clear what technology Apple should implement. All of them?
I think there's much, much more improvement to be made software wise. So, I think that's where the real focus will be at WWDC: iOS5. Better notifications, widgets, more user friendly multi-tasking,... there's a lot of work for Apple to do.
The same iPhone 4, now with iOS5: it's like a whole new phone.