Neil Hughes
The results of the RBC/ChangeWave survey were released Tuesday by analyst Mike Abramsky. The poll of 2,200 respondents taken between Aug. 2 and 10 found that pre-launch demand for the so-called "iPhone 5" exceeds that of the iPhone 4, as a similar poll conducted in 2010 found 25 percent of respondents would buy Apple's fourth-generation smartphone.
In all, 13 percent of respondents said in August 2011 that they are "very likely" to buy a fifth-generation iPhone, while 18 percent said they are "somewhat likely." That's even better than the 12 percent who were "very likely" and 13 percent "somewhat likely" to purchase an iPhone 4 in June of 2010.
Abramsky also pointed out what he believes will be a "significant" upgrade cycle, as the iPhone 4 is nearly 15 months old. The poll found that 66 percent of existing iPhone users are very or somewhat likely to buy the iPhone 5, which indicates Apple could see a large number of upgraders.
The survey also found strong demand for the next iPhone at carriers Sprint and T-Mobile, where more than 50 percent of subscribers said they are either significantly or somewhat more likely to buy the iPhone if available. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sprint would offer the iPhone 5 alongside AT&T and Verizon in October.
Because of the survey's indication that iPhone 5 demand is high, Abramsky has raised his estimated fiscal 2012 iPhone sales to 110 million, up from 105 million. He sees Apple selling 27 million iPhones in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 alone.
The survey also asked respondents about the iPad, and the results show utter dominance for Apple, with 85 percent of all tablet buyers planning to buy the iPad. That's up from 82 percent in February.
The survey data also shows strong back-to-school buying for the iPad 2, as 26 percent of respondents said they are very or somewhat likely to buy Apple's second-generation tablet. Accordingly, Abramsky has also increased his iPad sales estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 to 12.5 million.
RBC Capital Markets sees Apple earning $110 billion in revenue in fiscal 2011, growing to $140 billion in revenue the following year, and $167 billion by fiscal 2013. It has a $500 price target for AAPL stock.
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108 Comments
A nice morning story to accompany my bowl of Cheerios. Go AAPL!!!
This is the type of survey where ones response can only be something like "No Sh*t Sherlock"!
There is a huge demand for the iPhone 5, just waiting on Apple to get their butts into gear and actually release it, the imminent release of the GM version of iOS pretty much confirms the October release date.
Now we just need Apple to arrange a little presentation.......
That's great. I'm in that boat too. Apple still needs to work to push that number farther north, including a renewed push to appeal to the younger crowds which are increasingly interested in Android devices - which are now considered the devices with the 'cool' factor.
When everyone is used to a yearly refresh, and then have to wait longer there will be a lot of pent up demand. I sure hope AAPL doesn't get used to all this hype and start waiting longer between refreshes.
Yeah. No surprise here. If nothing else just consider what a HUGE seller the iPhone 3GS was, and I'm sure that most of those iPhone owners, myself included, are definitely considering if not planning to buy the new iPhone 5. Add to that the comparative handful of people that will pay the early contract termination, plus the potentially huge number of Sprint customers and this should be a truly massive launch.