Neil Hughes
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed in a note to investors on Tuesday that domestic NPD retail data for all three months of the December quarter shows U.S. Mac sales up 12 percent year over year. The data has prompted him to lower his forecasted Mac sales for the holiday quarter by 300,000 units to 4.9 million.
Munster's latest projection calls for Apple to see growth of 18 percent year over year. At 6 percent higher than NPD's data, the projection matches the differential of the September quarter, when actual growth was 26 percent and NPD's domestic data saw a 20 percent increase.
"Soft" Mac sales in the December quarter could be a result of tough comparisons from 2010. It was in October of that year that Apple launched its redesigned MacBook Air lineup.
Even if Mac sales do disappoint, Munster isn't worried. In fact, he raised his iPhone estimates by 600,000 units, to 30.6 million — a number which will fully offset any reduced Mac revenue. In addition, Munster does not believe NPD's data suggests anything about Apple's iPad or iPhone sales in the December quarter.
Munster has been closely following NPD's monthly data for the quarter. Last month, he revealed that quarterly Mac sales in the U.S. were up 13 percent over the first two months of the quarter. The analyst had initially projected that Mac sales would spike in month of December.
The latest data suggests Apple is on pace to match its previous best for Mac sales in a three-month span. The company's current record came in the September quarter when it achieved sales of 4.89 million Macs.,
The full NPD data for the quarter also shows iPod sales down 16 percent, suggesting the final tally will be ahead of the market's consensus of 15.5 million units. Munster now believes iPod sales will be closer to 16 million for the quarter.
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Charles Martin
Malcolm Owen
William Gallagher
21 Comments
Oh here we go, AAPL will drop 20 points and 'Apple is doomed ™' ...
One more week and we'll find out if NPD is right..
Historically Apple share have gone up until the quality report.
"Experts" always find something that is disappointing with Apple. Almost overtime its something that are totally wrong. Last year it was Ipad disappointment. They did not tell that the number was affected by the Ipad1 to 2 transformation.
Same thing Q3 last year. Iphone disappointment. Nothing about the Iphone4 to S transformation. I also love how they harped that Apple missed Wall street when Apples profit only went up 54%.
Analytics have now seeded 3 stories that they can play up as disappointing:
1) The most insane analytics belive Apple sold 36 million phones. When Apple "only" sells 30-31 million its a "huge" disappointment
2) Ipad2 numbers. Many analytics have said it will be 13+ million. It will come in a couple of million short. "Kindle Fire is killing Ipad"
3) And now the Mac sales numbers. "Apple's luster is gone. No one bought macs during the holidays.
I predict that the shares will fall after the report and that they will bounce back starting about 3 weeks before the Ipad3 introduction. After the Ipad3 intro, the shares will fall again and then start to rise before Q1 report. After Q1 it will go down until 3 weeks before the next Apple event.
Who cares if its 4.9 or 6.2? They still did better than the PC industry by a long way....
Who cares if its 4.9 or 6.2? They still did better than the PC industry by a long way....
Just as long as it isn't 5.