Josh Ong"The bottom line is that we remain comfortable with an October iPhone 5 launch despite the reported 28nm chip shortage at Qualcomm," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider on Monday.
Qualcomm is widely expected to provide the baseband chip for the next-generation iPhone. Both the iPhone 4S and the third-generation 4G iPad make use of Qualcomm cellular chips. Munster reported last month that Qualcomm's supply issues with its LTE chips would prevent Apple's next handset from being released any earlier than October of this year.
According to the note, the firm estimates an 80 percent chance that iPhone sales will meet its forecast of 49 million units in the December 2012 quarter. Even if Apple was affected by shortages, Munster expressed belief that iPhone sales would simply be shifted into the March 2013 quarter and beyond.
"We believe it would be unlikely that a consumer would choose to buy another phone if they are unable to get an iPhone 5 due to short term supply constraints given past launches with limited supply," he wrote.
PiperJaffray reiterated on Monday its Overweight rating for Apple and a $910 price target.
Munster suggested that Apple's size could help it achieve "favored inventory status" that would lessen the blow from any production woes that Qualcomm is experiencing. The firm also pointed to Apple's "past experience in dealing with potentially limited components at launch" as reason to believe that the company will remain relatively impervious to the shortage.
Munster ended his note with his thoughts on the possible specifications of Apple's next iPhone. He believes the redesigned iPhone may "more closely resemble the metal rear panel of the current iPad." He also said there is a 50 percent chance that the next iPhone will have a screen larger than four inches.
"Beyond the redesigned body and screen, we believe the new phone will include 4G LTE, upgraded processor and memory, and a higher megapixel camera," he added.
Several major media outlets reported last week that the sixth-generation iPhone will feature a larger display. The Wall Street Journal claimed that Apple had been placing orders for screens measuring "at least 4 inches diagonally." Subsequent reports claimed that the displays could be built as soon as June and that late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs had "worked closely" on the design of the device before his death last October.
Munster's predictions are largely in line with those of his his fellow analysts. Multiple investment firms have suggested that Apple will release a redesigned iPhone with LTE in September or October.
Christine McKee
Appleinsider Staff
Malcolm Owen
Wesley Hilliard
Andrew O'Hara
16 Comments
Quite a lot of bullet points being addressed here. One that stood out for me was the 'higher megapixel camera'. I am wary of the thought that they would increase it, as it will require more data, both in storage and networking if people want to mail/upload a full-res picture. Do you think they will increase the storage, to, say 96GB for the top end model? I think it stays at 64GB, at least for this years' 6th gen. model.
I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line. I do really hope they can get the new phone out in mid-September though. I'm a little nervous about the September quarter numbers without a few weeks of a new model.
I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.
[quote name="ifij775" url="/t/150206/piperjaffray-28nm-chip-shortages-unlikely-to-impact-apples-next-iphone#post_2113352"]I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.[/quote] That's not quite what he said. He said there's a 50% chance it will have a screen larger than 4". He doesn't address the question of whether they will retain the current 3.5" screen.
[quote name="PhilBoogie" url="/t/150206/piperjaffray-28nm-chip-shortages-unlikely-to-impact-apples-next-iphone#post_2113347"]Quite a lot of bullet points being addressed here. One that stood out for me was the 'higher megapixel camera'. I am wary of the thought that they would increase it, as it will require more data, both in storage and networking if people want to mail/upload a full-res picture. Do you think they will increase the storage, to, say 96GB for the top end model? I think it stays at 64GB, at least for this years' 6th gen. model.[/quote] We only got the 64GB iPhone with the iPhone 4S. While I can see why some would want and pay for a 128GB* iPhone it seems unlikely to me they will double the capacity YoY. And before anyone says anything 96GB is entirely possible in a 2 chip system and even possible in a 1 chip system. So far we've not seen Apple do that but they could and there is an argument to be made that waiting to double your capacity each time will cause scaling issues in the future. * I'm sure many of these people would want a 256B or 512GB version if that was a possibility. [quote name="aaarrrgggh" url="/t/150206/piperjaffray-28nm-chip-shortages-unlikely-to-impact-apples-next-iphone#post_2113351"]I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line. I do really hope they can get the new phone out in mid-September though. I'm a little nervous about the September quarter numbers without a few weeks of a new model.[/quote] Looking at the iPhone and iPad ARP it doesn't look like the iPhone and iPad are selling mostly the high en models unless they are well countered by the low-end models. I've had many people ready to buy a new iPhone ask me which one they should get. I've simply looked at iTunes or their iOS settings to see how much space they are using. Surprisingly it's only a couple GBs. I think what we're seeing is the same thing we've seen with PCs for decades. There are PC users like members of this forum who store vast amounts of info or play games or do specialized work that require faster HW but most users just want something useful for basic tasks. I hope you get your 128GB iPhone this year as I will surely be in line for it but I don't think it's a priority for Apple, especially in a release cycle that looks to be seeing a new case design, LTE, and 28nm chips that can offer more space and power savings, and a potential for a larger display size. Higher storage capacity seems more like a 2nd cycle bullet point. [quote name="ifij775" url="/t/150206/piperjaffray-28nm-chip-shortages-unlikely-to-impact-apples-next-iphone#post_2113352"]I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.[/quote] Sure there is a chance. Consider this to be Schrödinger's iPhone.