Holiday iPhone sales projected to reach 46.5M as pundits 'underestimate' Apple
Tech pundits who find the iPhone 5 "boring" are not expected to be in agreement with consumers, who are expected to buy a record 46.5 million iPhones this holiday shopping season.
Analyst Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee raised his December quarter forecast for iPhone sales by 500,000 units in a note to investors on Monday. He believes Apple could sell even more than 46.5 million units, but he has heard from sources in Apple's supply chain that company may face production constraints of the iPhone 5 due to its use of new in-cell touch panels.
Wu expects record shattering iPhone 5 sales as he views the product as a "significant update" that "will drive a powerful product cycle." That's in contrast to some in the press who have panned the iPhone 5 as "disappointing" and a "minor" update.
In Wu's view, those who do not think Apple's latest handset will be a success "underestimate" the iPhone 5. He thinks the device will place a great deal of pressure on competitors, and will help Apple capture customers who may have otherwise purchased an Android or Windows phone with a larger screen or 4G LTE connectivity.
With iPhone sales forecast to reach 46.5 million in the December quarter, Apple is expected to set a new record for iPhone sales in the holiday shopping season. The company's previous best quarter came at the end of 2011, when Apple sold a record 37 million iPhones.
As for the current quarter, which concludes at the end of the month, Wu believes Apple will sell a total of 27 million iPhones. Sales will be helped by the iPhone 5, which debuts in 9 countries this Friday, and 22 more the following week, before the quarter ends on Sept. 29.
Apple announced on Monday that the iPhone 5 has had the strongest start of any of the company's products to date. A total of 2 million preorders were placed in the first 24 hours, and Apple has sold out of launch day availability.
47 Comments
No doubt they could sell 46.5 million. Will they be able to MAKE 46.5 million in that time?
[quote name="thataveragejoe" url="/t/152696/holiday-iphone-sales-projected-to-reach-46-5m-as-pundits-underestimate-apple#post_2192115"]No doubt they could sell 46.5 million. Will they be able to MAKE 46.5 million in that time? [/quote] I'd think by now we should be able to get a fairly accurate equation to figure out sales based on historical data. If they really did double their first 24 hour pre-orders does that equate to doubling their quarterly sales? Any math people want to take a swing at it?
A minor update? The pundits must be looking at the iPhone 5 with their brains shut down. Hardware wise, the iPhone 5 is a significant upgrade: A6, new Qualcomm chips (LTE), new touchscreen technology, new size, new manufacturing process, new camera, possibly significant speed enhancement, new suppliers. Then there's the significant changes going from ios 5 to iOS 6. Many features will be backward compatible, of course, but still significant. The changes made for the iPhone 5 will allow for future developments in the iPhone line, and one should expect to see these changes coming to the iPad, and iPad mini, if rumors are to be believed. In all, the iPhone 5 updates are significant by any reasonable measure.
Last year in the holiday quarter, Apple sold 37MM. The 46.5% is only 26% above last year. That % increase is ridiculously low These analysts by and large have their heads up their ass. Their price targets will continue to be behind and be chasing the stock.
The analysts pretty much get it wrong every time. Lets see. The iPod will never sell for the premium price over other MP3s. The iPhone will never make it in an established phone market of Nokia and Motorola phones. The iPad is just a big iPhone and it will never sell because it doesn't have a full OS like PC tablets. The iMac looks like a toy and doesn't ahve a floppy so it won't change the world of computers forever. The Macbook Air is too expensive and has no optical drive. Then look at every revision of each product and the analysts always say there are minor revisions and these things are boring and they won't sell. I can't think of a single time when the early tech analysts have been right about a single apple product. Except when they said the Cube wouldn't sell. It was actually really cool and revolutionary but there was not a big market for it.