Sam Oliver
The total number of 3G subscribers in China reached 222 million in November, up 88 percent year over year, giving yet another indication why the market is so important for continued growth of Apple's iPhone.
Analyst Brian White with Topeka Capital Markets offered a closer look this week at the latest stats on mobile subscribers in China. In particular, he noted that China Mobile's 3G subscriber growth has been hurting because the carrier does not offer Apple's iPhone.
Even though China Mobile has 707.3 total wireless subscribers, making it the world's largest carrier, the telecom has just 82.4 million 3G customers. China Mobile represents 64 percent of the total wireless subscribers in China, but only 37 percent of China's 3G users — and its share shrunk from 41 percent of 3G users a year ago.
"China Mobile is the only major carrier in China that does not have a relationship with Apple to sell the iPhone," White said in a note to investors. "We still expect Apple and China Mobile to announce an agreement for the iPhone in 2013."
The two carriers that do offer the iPhone — China Telecom and China Unicom — saw their 3G subscribers double year over year in November. Both also launched the iPhone 5 on Dec. 14, moving a record setting 2 million units in the device's opening weekend.
White expects 3G growth in the month of December will accelerate even further for both China Telecom and China Unicom thanks to the iPhone 5 launch.
He expects that the total number of 3G subscribers in China will reach at least 230 million by the end of 2012. He projects between 325 million and 350 million 3G subscribers will be in the market by the end of 2013, a huge increase from the just 127.5 million 3G subscribers China had at the end of 2011.
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18 Comments
Please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe the only reason that android has a larger marketshare compared with iOS is because apple leaves uncovered huge world markets. Every place they both compete in more or less equal terms (some US carriers, for example), IOS is much more popular. And that lower marketshare may be due to: a) unable to timely produce the stock for those markets, or b) a soon to be finished agreement with the main supplier (Samsung) to leave undeveloped countries for them, and so assuring a non compromised production commitment for Apple. If a), the huge increase in capex of the last Q's is about to change this. If b), the legal battles, investment in chip design and production, etc., may be the signs of this kind of agreement to be finished sooner than later.
I can't see Apple playing the Chinese market any differently than it plays other markets. Lower market share (except in the USA) but higher profits.
I'm beginning to think more and that this business plan will not have long term viability.
This is not to say that I think that Apple should join in the race to the bottom.
Please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe the only reason that android has a larger marketshare compared with iOS is because apple leaves uncovered huge world markets. Every place they both compete in more or less equal terms (some US carriers, for example), IOS is much more popular.
Unfortunately you need correcting. Europe, for example.
I can't see Apple playing the Chinese market any differently than it plays other markets. Lower market share (except in the USA) but higher profits.
I'm beginning to think more and that this business plan will not have long term viability.
This is not to say that I think that Apple should join in the race to the bottom.
As long as market share is enough to provide a viable marketplace for app developers, I think apple should be just fine with lower share. I don't know what the tipping point is, where developers will start deprioritizing iOS, but so far they are making more money there despite a smaller market to sell to because of the better security of the marketplace and (apparently) a different user profile that is willing to pay for good apps.
[quote name="mieswall" url="/t/155192/chinas-3g-subscribers-grow-88-year-over-year-to-222m#post_2251108"]Please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe the only reason that android has a larger marketshare compared with iOS is because apple leaves uncovered huge world markets. Every place they both compete in more or less equal terms (some US carriers, for example), IOS is much more popular. And that lower marketshare may be due to: a) unable to timely produce the stock for those markets, or b) a soon to be finished agreement with the main supplier (Samsung) to leave undeveloped countries for them, and so assuring a non compromised production commitment for Apple. If a), the huge increase in capex of the last Q's is about to change this. If b), the legal battles, investment in chip design and production, etc., may be the signs of this kind of agreement to be finished sooner than later.[/quote] The primary reason for Android's share in China is the fact that the iPhone is not available on China Mobile yet (600+ million subscribers). And the reason for that is Apple refuses to bend to CM's demands for special treatment. They've been negotiating for at least four years now. When it finally happens -- it's a question of when, not if -- it will be Android's (and by extension, Samsung's) worst nightmare. I am predicting that it will be sewn up in time for iPhone 6 (or 5S, whatever the next one is called).